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You have plenty of time. Wait till the smoke clears. There will be bankruptcies coming soon. Then you can better see who has friends and who doesn't. When the bankers panic, they can strand even good companies.

I still see guys in here trying to pick a bottom, which sort of shocks me. Yesterday about buying KMI. So I guess there's still some buyers left, despite how oversold it all is. Now we need some chest beating about what a great short oil was for them.

This thread reminds me of that party in college where I showed up already drunk and there were no chicks there but I drank their beer anyway cause there was nothing better to do then I left and puked repeatedly in the bushes.

You know, if someone stole your wallet with 500_bucks in it,you'd be pissed. Calling the cops, launching an investigation. Yet you're about to lose probably ten times that, and there will be no inquiry.

And the reason to buy it is?

I try to keep an open mind about it, but it's hard. My mentor used to remind me that we don't know much. Usually after I said something completely arrogantly, as usual.

The market doesn't care how old you are.

I look at a five year old Mercedes with all of its computer and technical problems and think that the more complicated some system gets, the more unstable it is.

If the price at the moment is causing traders to change their views on the market and panic, what is that? I'm just asking anyone who cares to reply. Is that randomness? Technical analysis? I'm more confused than when I got here.

I would agree. Most traders concern themselves with price. But there's also the concept of value in technical terms, such as volume profile. I find,price alone too narrow, though I've traded,that way. I would say that that's what technical traders do anyway, trade back towards recent value,or...

If price and value were always in line there would be no reason to trade

If the main factory catches fire, does that affect the fundamentals or the price first?

I've seen more than a few instances where the demand for the underlying has changed significantly while the price remains constant to believe that fundamentals and technicals always agree.

I guess my decision making must be random as well, according to the idea that trading proficiency is random. What about the move in the oil market over the past year and a half? Let me guess. Random?

The view from another planet is that things seem to be bid up or down on a consistent basis, but only in retrospect. Few of the earthlings ever seem to make any money from all of their efforts. Then they all panic at the same time.

Or just leaning on the paper, as the pit traders do. I used to enjoy listening to the pit audio for that reason. After awhile you can get a sense of when a big move is happening.

I guess if you're being front run all the time it might make it harder to operate.

If I search in an optimal place with the right client, what should I expect to find?

Edge: buy something that's going up, sell something that's going down. If it doesn't, get out. If it does, get out when it stops or before. Am I missing something? Oh yeah, if you can't tell don't trade it. You have no edge

You could flip a coin. At least one trading psychologist uses that method to teach trade management. It sounds similar, and reportedly is profitable over a series of trades with proper techniques