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Surf, How is it so far removed? You think Cohen doesn't put his pants on one leg at a time? Or are you mainly referring to the resources he has at his disposal?

That is precisely the irony in all of this. Logic and history dictate that it is impossible to know how much time will pass before a black swan event, so trying to capitalize on it is no less foolish than ignoring it's possibility. It's no surprise to me, hence, that Taleb has resorted to book...

Call him up and say: "Martaay, zis is Pierre Tete Du Merde, euhhh, how is my monay doing? If you don't do better than Tudor this month I will have to pull ze plug and reallocate my dollaires." Surely that should be good enough for him to catapult out of obscurity, lol. Supposedly he's a...

And so they 'say' nothing at all. Kind of like the forecaster who says market will go up if it doesn't go down and vice versa. Like Cuban said, dazzle em' with a steamin' pile is the modus operandi now.

Great article. This is the paragraph that caught my attention: "Cloninger has trained rats and mice in mazes to have persistence by carefully not rewarding them when they get to the finish. “The key is intermittent reinforcement,” says Cloninger. The brain has to learn that frustrating...

Hi Austin, I have the book by Chuck Hughes on the Robbins champions in which you have a chapter. I was curious to ask you, what do you think of John Holsinger and Kurt Sakaeda, some of the more high profile traders in the book who have won the Robbins contest before? Do you know them? I'm...

Even for the non newbies, how can an inverted reward risk ratio lead to proper execution that overcomes the huge obstacle of fear.... The only way I can see how that can be done is if you've developed the setups yourself and hence have the experience backed confidence to pull the trigger time...

Yeah can you imagine if every CTA out there pulled a Niederhoffer on people from time to time, that is, simply stop posting results whenever they feel like it... :eek: It's refreshing to see Aaron's commitment to his trading, open disclosure and overall honesty in a business rife with shady...

All he can do is jawbone, and his prediction for a recovery in housing is looking dumber by the minute. I find it real interesting that Greenspan would take the liberty to offer his entrails reading on the market when he is no longer in office. I mean, I think it's pretty rude to take a royal...

Surf, Are you afraid that the PPT might spoil your party?

VIX like a bat out of hell! This is just grotesque.

Hi Surf, I have no interest in getting in the debate between you and the other guy, but I just thought that your comment above re the objectivity of a method begs the question: Can trading on an 'informational edge' be qualified as objective? (as in your NFI trade)

Hi Surf, Are your stock trades based on a statistical quantitative edge? Or are you simply attempting to buy when risk appears to be outsized to the majority of participants, just because you believe that outsize gains cannot be achieved without taking on large risk?

http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/trendfollowing.pdf This is one of the few studies I've seen that has statistics, but it only covers 94-03'. Maybe you could email Graham Capital and ask them for the updated version if they have one? It's great that you're aware of the pitfalls of...

I think that in general, CTAs have very poor sharpe ratios relative to hedge funds, but don't quote me on that. Probably because their risk profile is that of being a long option like investment, with large standard deviations of returns. The only real benefit I can think of that most CTAs can...

Indeed. There's potentially a good example of this problem in the making with Matador Fund, which apparently has not reported results since mid 06' after large losses and probably redemptions rocked Mr Niederhoffer's ship. Since, it seems that anyone who really knows whats going on has been...

The intraday range on the indices has grinded down to an almost halt... is this 2007 or 1997?

I think that it's one of Vic's favorite strategies, i.e., playing dead like many in the animal kingdom, including the great and mighty possum which when sensing danger suddenly appears limp and deader than the dodo, only to viciously plant its mouth full of teeth into your arse when you try to...

Shows you how far off they are from Elvis (Jim Simons) who has returned ~70% before fees annually for a decade... light years away if all they can do is 19% with the best hires. I wonder what their monthly sharpe is. My suspicion is that the very best quants (probably no more than 100 in the US)...

From the Australian: "The claycourt title at Roland Garros in Paris is the only major to elude Roger Federer but Larry Stefanki, the widely respected coach of losing Australian Open finalist Fernando Gonzalez, said yesterday the Swiss star was too good not to win it. "Can he win the...