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  1. M

    Hypothetical dilemma

    Put everything into a synthetic USD constructed out of BTC hedged with futures. S&P500 is aweful here since the business cycle is between 8-12 years and if you're unlucky the market crashes right when your fk U money is unlocked
  2. M

    about Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures / Options

    holy crap, this guy has a death wish! Madlad!
  3. M

    So nike bought a company that makes digital sneakers for the hyped up metaverse

    Did it ever come to your mind that you are wrong on this one?
  4. M

    Best way to pick strike price for covered calls?

    first of all, selling options for income is probably one of the bigger scams retails falls victim to over and over again. There is no income, it's just a stat vol vs implied vol bet, period. Second, he stated he wanted to hold positions at least until JAN22 for tax resons (OPs 2nd post) and...
  5. M

    Best way to pick strike price for covered calls?

    Covered call Synthetic 1x2 Synthetic fly. He only want's to hedge his portfolio for tax reasons. Covered calls look like shit because they don't cap the downside. Synthetic 1x2s have unlimited upside risk so I would not hedge a portfolio of biotechs with them. But if he owns a bunch of...
  6. M

    Swing trading with Butterflies

    So first of all I do not quite understand why you're opening positions that have just a couple of DTE if you're speculating on skew and vol. Weeklies and dailies are 90% gamma plays, meaning these options have close to no vega because premia are so cheap. Instead they are bets on strike touch...
  7. M

    Best way to pick strike price for covered calls?

    buy an OTM put, sell two OTM calls
  8. M

    Swing trading with Butterflies

    Just chimed in. I was wondering: Your main driver of P/L is vol and skew delta. i.e. you want spot to trade towards your short strike that loses vol through skew and level. May I ask why you leave the unwanted greeks open? You could hedge gamma with shorter maturity teenies to avoid these...
  9. M

    CME Fees Increasing Again in February

    about time
  10. M

    Will it work again?

    That is true and it's necessary to prevent illicit transactions on a large scale. I'm all in on privacy but I don't want to end up with a rocket up my butt that has been financed by some dudes that laundered BTC donations on exchange. If you really want to keep your privacy, you could just use...
  11. M

    Will it work again?

    you don't get it. BTC is the biggest chain that allows you to transfer whenever you want to wherever you want without anyone being able to prevent it. Nobody can change anything, you only can fork it and if you want to take over the chain, the only possible option is a 51% attack...which is...
  12. M

    Will it work again?

    try to find an exchange that let's you trade Monero with size. Good luck with that....it's prohibited in most countries and I'm sure that no exchange that accepts US clients will allow XMR
  13. M

    Is there a Greek term for IV?

    Just measure IV on a high frequency basis, meaning don't use daily numbers to calculate intraday moves. If the minimum tick size for an option is 5cts, it cannot go to 3 cts. So if it stays at 5 cts until expiry, of course IV is gonna shoot to the moon during the last couple of minutes of...
  14. M

    Will it work again?

    The utility of BTC is in the censorless transfer of value across the globe. This feature is unique to BTC alone thus it will always have some value. You could calculate it's production cost to get a grip on how much premium you are currently paying over production. People like @nooby_mcnoob...
  15. M

    Market neutral: long spy etf, short mes future

    No. A SPY/MES spread is also market neutral. He plays for the implied forward rate vs. dividends
  16. M

    Market neutral: long spy etf, short mes future

    cool...you basically just buy a straddle. Can you explain why this would be dump in this scenario?
  17. M

    Market neutral: long spy etf, short mes future

    First of all, you would want to trade this spread dollar neutral, meaning you sell 1 MES future and buy MES future price x tick value (= dollar value of your futures position) worth of SPY ETFs. Two things come to mind here: 1. You're shorting a forward (MES) which includes carry in the form of...
  18. M

    Crypto arbitrage help please

    well, then your trade is dead
  19. M

    Asian High Yield Corporate Bond Funds

    US global tax rules imply that also foreign financial institutes have to report activity to the IRS and nobody wants to deal with this BS. So they just avoid US clients alltogether
  20. M

    Is the Bitcoin Mystery over?

    you're angry because you're not fun at parties?
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