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The midprice is not a tradable quantity, only the bid and the ask. All you have done is narrow the bid/ask by lowering the ask. Nobody gets cheated by you doing this.

I applaud your desire to seek knowledge and educate yourself, but the world doesn't really need any more quants. Remember Buffet's quote about derivatives as weapons of financial mass destruction? Anyhow, if you could use your acquired skills to develop a simple model that accounts for the...

Yes, and the weight of human history has said that only gold and silver have held "value".

If a currency is backed by a physical commodity such as gold or silver, then it is by definition not a fiat currency. Anyhow, the weight of human history is on the side of the gold bugs. A good read is "The Creature from Jeckyll Island." I am not as conspiratorial as the author, but I think...

Also IV potentially.

In your course of learning, also remember a fundamental fact about technical analysis. No indicator can precede the event it diagnoses. In other words, all indicators react to price and can not tell you what price will be in the next time frame. Another fundamental aspect of TA is that the...

The main man for DSP in trading is John Ehlers: http://www.stockspotter.com/In/Default.aspx http://www.mesasoftware.com/ Read his comments about FT in trading.

Robert Tompkins has a good paper: http://thfinance.de/RobertTompkins/EJF2.pdf

I thought she said she did 95% probability on puts and 90% on calls. That would make it a 1.643 SD move to the down side or a 1.282 SD move to the upside. In Excel try this: =normsdist(-1.643) = 0.05 =normsdist(1.282) = 0.90 The normsdist function calculates the area under the curve...

Dude, above my head on the more advanced math. Try Wilmott forum for the real propeller head stuff. Also, watch some of these episodes. Some are better than others, but usually interesting. https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/the-skinny-on-options-math/episodes

I generally like the mean reversion / percentile rank strategy, but have been wondering what is so special about a one year lookback period. In statistics, using more data is usually more better. Why not use all available data, even if it means going back to 1975 when a particular listed...

Price is lognormally distributed, and return is normally distributed. If you do a bit of searching under my username, I've posted some sample calculations involving normal distributions. BTW, probability of touch is roughly twice the probability if finishing OTM.

Perhaps so, but the proof is in the pudding, and she has made this simple if risky strategy work for her. The hard work is in the analysis of position to put on and sizing, and then managing the position when things start to go south. One nuance to her strategy is that she only sells calls on...

Besides, one shouldn't look to just maximize probability, but instead maximize payoff. Payoff is probability*(reward/risk). Selling an option with a 95% probability of finishing OTM but only credits you 0.06 is ridiculous.

I realize you are "daytrading", but also from the Jesse Livermore files... - The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they...

Foozler, you get stopped into your long position, but I'm not clear how you determine which price to set the stop at. Is it the high of the bar that made the double bottom?

Foozler, I am really admiring your dedication and discipline. Two questions, first, do you have a set list of stocks you always watch, or do you scan for this particular DBP pattern. Second, have you looked at trading the mirror position, the double top pullback, DTP, on down days? Thx.

You can password protect your plugins so that no one can access the source code. Of course there is password cracking software available, so just make your password as long and random as you can stand, and yes, write it down.

Has anyone tried to put on a skew or kurtosis trade ala Javaheri or Rebonato from the retail side? I'm wondering if these trades are practical only in the domain of the arbs? Although the positions themselves look like verticals or butterflies. Does anyone even know what the hell I'm...

The option price isn't effected by the greeks. In a typical pricing model such as BS, the greeks aren't one of the five inputs. The greeks are partial differentials of the pricing model.