Let me tell you this, I've sat down and chatted with a PM managing $4 billion for one of the most respected HF. We were not talking macro, we were talking models.
LOL. Take your financial radio, your financial newspapers, your analysts research, place them on a desk, slide the desk under a window, open the window, tilt the desk and start making money.
Model telling me tomorrow's drop may put in a bottom.
Looking at the longer term model, 1507.50 is the short area, we selloff and then put in a bottom around 1413.
Everyone's correct and so is their model as long as there is a model and not just guessing, feeling,etc. The best HF's are all model based and want them kept secret to avoid them reaching equilibrium.