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MA based trend following does have potential, and I've developed a few systems. The original 40 bar breakout got faded hard once the world learned there were dozens of common folks picked at random, sometimes off the streets, who were taking their money this way. By the time Jack Swager's book...

Eureka. Excellent post - thank you very much for weighing in. This is it. My psychology is a mental prison of continual torture when I'm up on a trade. I can't hold winners, but this is exactly why. The fluctuations kill me, and someone has to endure that. That is the value added. This is...

Thank you very much for this comment, now I understand the mind of a parasite who is just there to extract and not provide. If that is the true reality of winning in capital markets, my own psychology has prevented me from success, not my methods (and I've found several that still work)...

You just need to know what industry the government is going to support or sanction, before the legislation hits the docket. And there are a few hundred people out there I can think of who know this information before any of us......

I appreciate that, and engineering has been a super career for me, but old textbooks still show you the math needed to design a bridge or airplane wing correctly. I threw away most of my trading "textbooks" recently because none of them provided any kind of solution to the question - what do I...

Oligarchs are buying farmland, and look at that glorious long term up trend on cattle futures! I already have enough land for a herd, if California relents on its fart ban plans.

Yes, exactly. The market sends money wherever it wants. Whoever has enough money can make any outcome happen, and at the moment it seems all governments except China, Russia and their allies are monetizing their huge deficits and recapitalizing their banks. It's inflation city, all over the...

I agree you need to calculate expectancy to know you've really got an edge, but it's more fun to just watch your account balance grow, again and again. The algebra needed to do this is child's play compared to differential equations or my personal nightmare, laplace transforms (used for...

For one main reason: the physical world acts equally instantly and infinitely (within our human limits to measure) on objects with physical laws. F=MA (the acceleration formula) does not have a quantity limit, nor does F=GmM/r^2 (the law of gravity), at least on our human world. You can drop...

I think this may be true, but good traders also know what they are doing, and refrain from trying new things until they are tested and proven. I like how you follow your system. :)

I like that logic, but I'm down 25% this year because I got seduced by another fundamental analysis story someone else told me. It's like the equity curve got hit by an asteroid. From now on I'm going to be a pattern recognizing robot. Maybe I can program an AI to make me cut losses and let...

The T/A is getting more decisive, at least the NQ. Three banks just got shut down and CS is circling the drain, and the tape is just shaking it off. Money is flowing into american technology for some reason.

I would not be surprised if this OP marked the bottom of the move.

Can't believe how badly I got spanked thinking funny mentals instead of looking at horizontal support, resistance and trend lines. This past two months was an obvious corrective wave (and they are hard as anything to trade) but I kept trying to short it like 2008 was about to happen again...

I'm out here, more losses. Might need to stop trading for a while. :(

Thankfully I'm not leveraged, but moves like the overnight blast can take lives. I'm down to my last one or two.

I was not happy when you posted this, but right again.

I have no clue how you do it. I lost so much money buying calls & puts that the option market is a no-go zone. You're either clairvoyant or seeing the muppets getting ready to get wasted with the open interest, or whatever it is. Please, please do not disclose any of it, or the market will...

That was a wild trade.

I was thinking this through last night, and that scenario is plausible. Another one is that Powell "partial pivots" to slower hikes since the dollar is under pressure due to the failed sanctions and brics brotherhood getting ressurrected (Saudi Arabia no longer using dollars to settle oil sales...