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As far as I know, aphie has 5k for trading 1 ES contract. So, he can't trade smaller. My advice is: get the other, low-risk source of income! :D Remember even experienced professionals have long flat periods and serious drawdowns. 5k for trading 1 ES is too small acct size IMO. Maybe that's...

negative - true and the market *wants* to go higher... at least there's no panic selling. Looks like MSFT report is what everybody are waiting for.

Andy, thanks for explanation. I like your signature. It looks illogical when you read it first. Even if you analyze the sentence - it also looks irrational! Like Homer Simpson picture I attached. It doesn't make any sense here. But maybe it has some secret meaning? :D Don: thanks for the...

Instead of "they don't work forever" I would say they have periods when they don't work ( nobody knows how long, how deep drawdowns... ). The only reason why mechanical systems work is: Hurst exponent for many markets is above 0.5 which means that the price has a tendency to follow the previous...

"He who thinks he knows, doesn't know. He who doesn't know, knows." There's a logic behind these words! No! Yes? :confused: :mad: ok let's forget about it :D Don Bright: you post much here, write to TASC, manage your company... Certainly it can start to be boring at some point...

Here are some math stuff for ya http://www-2.cs.cmu.edu/~chal/Shreve/shreve.html http://ideas.uqam.ca/ideas/data/tprsndecm.html http://netec.mcc.ac.uk/BibEc/data/tprsndecm.html Personally, I prefer "spunk the monkey" analysis, by candletrader...

"There is a time to apply meticulous and rigorous science and a time to apply art. There is a time to focus on strict logic and a time to rely on "fuzzy logic." "Everything in life requires balance." "Remember, small meaningless variables in chaos theory generally lead to multi-billion...

To yabz: (I guess darkhorse, nitro, metooxx, Commisso, 2Good2Care, daniel_m already know this :D ) Markets move in non-linear way. It means they don't move with some specific mathematical formula. "Random" means that you always have 50% chance to win or lose certain amount of money on...

http://www.tickdata.com/FuturesData.html also http://www.csidata.com http://www.pinnacledata.com/

Anyone else started trading at age 11? Commisso, what kind of trading/investing you were doing?

Well said. If futures markets won't be used to hedge, they will be the world's largest online casino! :D Great article about zero-sum game: http://www.turtletrader.com/zerosum.pdf

Regarding equity curve smoothness: I looked once again at http://iasg.pertrac2000.com/mainframe.asp? The best fund in terms of average return per year is Hanseatic - Discretionary. Their monthly performance ranges from -15.67% ( May 1997 ) to +40.05% ( March 2000 ). Yearly performance from...

So, you assume that the most recent market behavior will be continued in the near future. It may be or not... Market's behavior is non-linear, you'll never know what's gonna happen! Markets always change and are hard to predict. How can you adapt system's parameters to the future price curve...

I agree, only few people have more info than an average trader or have them earlier. But they can trade with big size... On one hand - competition is hard, on the other - sometimes "the crowd" over-reacts and its easier to make nice profits ( 1999/2000 for example ). My point is: don't...

I agree with you, daniel - "50%_pa_return_is_great". Of course, liquidity is not infinite but its huge. Funds can trade not only financial futures: currency futures, spot forex, stocks, options, etc. Liquidity is growing, 6 years ago there was no e-minis, dax, volume significantly lower than...

Once again, visit this site http://iasg.pertrac2000.com/mainframe.asp? Michael N-trading Financial Futures - 71M under mgmt ; 54%/year Quadriga AG - 132M under mgmt ; 31%/year Beach Capital-Discretionary - 426M under mgmt ; 24%/year World futures market's volume grows fast, so probably...

Look at http://iasg.pertrac2000.com/mainframe.asp? Rank by "Last 60 months annualized return". Only 4 Funds are making more than 30% per year on average. Many had drawdowns 30 to 60%. 20 points a day ( consistently ), trading 1 contract is BS. 10 points also. If you're making more than 50%...

"US economy is strong" George W Bush. OJ is not guilty uptick rule will save stocks from crash

I think Mr Market lies all the time! :)

"HIGH Hopes" Pink Floyd "Lady in Red" Chris de Burgh "The way it is" Bruce Hornsby "I'm on fire" The Boss "Chill Out (Things Gonna Change)" John Lee Hooker "Down under" Man at work For traders using moving averages - "Smooth" Carlos Santana For traders from Germany - "Eine Insel mit Zwei...