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In stead of crying foul about china trade surplus, US can do the following things to have a balanced trade with China. 1 change the laws which discriminate china firms to invest in US. Basically let china buy US assets and take controlling shares. I think China is very interested to buy...

You know during world war two, German Jews were forced to leave Germany. No single European country and not even US allowed them to stay. It is Shanghai that gave thousands of Jews a place to stay (AIG was founded in Shanghai during that time, mind you) and protect them from Hitler's genocide...

"1st day = 1 chinese person 2nd day = 2 chinese person 3rd day = 4 chinese 4thday = 8 chinese 255 day = we should be torturing at least 3 million chinese people , sourcing most from california " Do you know how to do math, master coolweb?

Got you, then you shouldn't complain about Chinese (and kill Chinese)for YOUR problem

How about your masters : jews

it won't be a problem if you just take profit with a few points.

Today's unemployment number came out better than expected, and there was sharp movement in market, ES shot up 10 points, 10 year Tsy note future shot down over 12 points. This makes me wonder if we could design a strategy to profit from such move. The idea is simple, just put a stop order...

thank you. this makes sense to me. How can you tell what's your your expectations of your strategy (risk/reward) w/o testing it? I might have some idea that the strategy might have over 50% winning odds, but that is far from enough because you have to overcome trading cost.

you are right. There is much more to backtesting in order to make your strategy work. what I am saying is that there is something you CAN do to improve back testing. for example, to see if your strategy only works in certain market condition, you can do some quantitative analysis, since I...

not really, you can use a computer program to do backtesting for you. once you define the rules, u never change the rule.

why didn't do manual execution for some time before switching to automation?

That is interesting. how those firms doing strategy using computer manage news?

if a backtesting shows a statistically significantly winning odds, you still could lose using the strategy. what could go wrong? I can think of the following 1. volatility changed 2. you strategy might only work in bull market, now market direction changed.

no offense. But from what I read from text book and what I was taught in university, you have no basic training in probability and statistics whatsoever. but I could be wrong, what I was taught and what I learned could be total BS and waste of time.

your question is the same as what's odds of 20 heads in a row when you flip a coin. it is 1 in 1 million. it is possible, but unlikely.

But what you said is another matter. I mean you should be able to control your emotion(easy said than done). I am just discussing the possibility.

what I meant is point in ES. not ticks(as one point has 4 ticks)

My thread of how not to blow up draw some attention. Now I want to discuss risk reward ratio. My assumption is that you have no edge in trading and every trade you enter has 50% chance of win. The intuition tells me by setting up wrong r:r would ruin your chance of win. obviously if...

Yes， I am. you?

I am in total agreement with you on that! The point I am making is to follow the simple rules like robot in order not to blow up is possible. How to make money is other issue.