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jackflash, have you always day-traded or you tried swing trading as well? I know you've traded commodities, I guess you did some position trading there. My question is basically why would you prefer day trading to trading longer time frames, if you can make such comparison?

No - because everyone else can make their own rules as well. In fact this would make the game even more complex than a "simple" Texas Hold'em game with 20 opponents, adding additional variables to consider. The more players there are, the more the game will get closer to a game of chance rather...

Maxpi's analogy comparing the market to a single opponent is weak. The market is the result of combined actions of many opponents. I prefer a poker analogy but instead of playing against a single opponent imagine a big poker table with 20 opponents - good luck beating that! The best strategy is...

What's the investment horizon? A year, or more ?

Whether or not there is a dependency in price is irrelevant. What is important is that you have perfect competition looking for patterns - only you have same tools, same access and execution, same commissions - no edge. Your only advantage can be a superior nervous system, but you have to be...

I wish it was as simple as classical mechanics :) When I say impossible to understand, I am talking about complex adaptive systems - things that change as you analyze them. For example, answer a simple question - what will be my reply to your next post ? You may have all the brain and computing...

I acknowledge that every system has some bias, some non-randomness to it, including a roulette wheel or a dice. But how do you find that bias? You need a huge amount of observations to determine a bias and rule out random results. And yet after so many observations the system may change, or the...

Traders fail because the market is perfectly competitive, therefore unpredictable and random, and they are trading noise. It's the same as playing roulette - no amount of discipline, planning, strategy, money management or emotional control can help you make money in the long run.

Gabfly1, you are not asking the right question :) First of all, what difference would it make what everyone believes. You should have formulated the question as "Is it possible to predict how far....?" Even if that was the question, it would still have a very simple answer "NO". Because no...

But I am also interested why so many people voted commodities and how would they implement such strategy :confused:

I didn't vote for commodities but if I had, I would buy the PowerShares Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Traking Fund ETF [DBC] - it is the most liquid and is well balanced. The other alternative for a diversified commodities ETF is iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust [GSG], it is 67% invested...

I don't think governments will allow water monopoly... Electricity generation for example is state owned in most countries.

That would probably be a very competitive business, there is nothing difficult in processing water. So I doubt that these companies will be a good investment.

This would be the best choice, perhaps, but there is a big difference in that you will actually have to work or at least exercise continuous control during the 20 year period, which is not the same as putting your savings into an asset class and forgetting about it. Besides even if you do own a...

As a matter of fact I haven't put art and jewelry in the options, because they are not securitized, but I doubt that this is what he has in mind...

Anyone else? Let's make it a respectable 100 votes!

It seems that half of the voters prefer their capital to be in real assets (gold, commodities, real estate)... But it'd be great to have some more votes :)

That's a great one :D

We are getting interesting results so far :)

Completely agree about inactivity. What I can't figure out is the explanation why is it so difficult to go with the trend on the way down? I know the market moves differently, that bottoms are often 'V' shaped, that fear is more contagious than greed and euphoria, but shouldn't there be any...