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We have two advantages over the roulette player. We have access to a wider range of betting instruments (i.e. options) and our random process (the market) has a skew. The coin-flip system becomes very important for estimating this skew. And options are a way to capture the profit left on...

Right again. It is an application of the optimal stopping problem. Here's a link that explains the problem. http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/knowing-when-to-stop/1 Ninna

The problem is you couldn't find the solution. I don't deal with ego issues, sorry, I'm only good at trading. This is why I will ignore your replies from now on. As for the game, the rules are clear and there are no misunderstanding. "Choose" doesn't mean "draw randomly". Whether you...

Zoom in or zoom out. You can always find a "technical" explanation for any price movement.

If you always choose the same numbers you're really running the experiment only once and therefore can't draw conclusions about the expectancy. What if I have access to a RNG from which I can draw normally distributed numbers between 1 and 100? How could I use it? If you really want me to...

Would you be surprised to hear that you can get higher than 50%? Ninna

There was no error in my wording. Whether you choose your number by hand or randomly (even uniform distribution) is irrelevant since permission to do one implies permission to do the other. Ninna

You are right. Those that don't agree, please play with me! :) Ninna

Here's how you get 100%: You either choose two numbers greater than 50 or two numbers less than 50. And you give me the one closer to 50. With the strategy you described I would loose everytime. There is indeed a strategy with positive expectancy for me. :) Here's a hint: the...

Your assumption is wrong. The strategy you describe is not good (from my point of view) as it would give you a 100% win probability. Ninna

Would you play this game with me? You are allowed to choose any two numbers between 1 and 100. You reveal to me one of the two numbers. Now, I must say whether the second number is greater than the first one. If I guess correctly, you owe me $99. If my guess is wrong I owe you $101...

You're mistaking correlation and causality. Correlation has no direction. Ninna

You're not getting it. Whether he's ahead or not is irrelevant. The expectancy is still negative. Lottery is a random process. Draws are independent. Therefore no amount of analysis can lead to information concerning future draws (see gambler's fallacy). Ninna

Source please? I would be interested. PM me if you want. Ninna

Yes, I live in Europe. Some islamic countries are bad examples of tolerance. Does it mean the USA should act as bad instead of being a role model? Both Islam and Christianity have always been religions of conquest and destruction (as opposed to Buddhism for instance). Tensions are...

And your point is? There are tens of thousands deaths by car accidents per year in India. Hell even cobras kill more than 30k people per year. Who cares if 6 cars catch fire? Ninna

What exactly do you have against Islam? I can't see how other's opinions or beliefs generate so much hate in you. We are all brothers and sisters. What we believe in, where we were born and where we live is irrelevant. Ninna

You should get a good book on statistics and read it.

This is the edge. Right there. Ninna

Great post. If you have a population of 1M of such drivers, you'll find a few who havn't had an accident in 15 years of "driving" everyday. And they will be worshiped as they are so "skillful" at "driving"... Ninna