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  1. BlueWaterSailor

    Simple question about options

    Really? Where did those "volatility numbers" come from? Tip: vol is backed out of the BSM (or whatever model you're using.) The formula can't give you a price without a vol figure; if you think it does, imagine a brand-new ticker and tell me how you're going to price it without any buyer/seller...
  2. BlueWaterSailor

    Simple question about options

    Not exactly. "Why We Have Never Used the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Formula" Authors: Espen Gaarder Haug, Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255650680_Why_We_Have_Never_Used_the_Black-Scholes-Merton_Option_Pricing_Formula...
  3. BlueWaterSailor

    Least/Most Favorable Paths when dynamically hedging a short straddle

    Ah - you didn't mention that. Gotta establish context and parameters (theoretical exercise, dynamic hedging/costs ~= 0, etc.) if you want meaningful answers.
  4. BlueWaterSailor

    Least/Most Favorable Paths when dynamically hedging a short straddle

    Best: stock pins at the strike and stays there; 100% of premium collected. Worst: stock goes to infinity, and your short call with it. Unless you're postulating a scenario where the trader is watching it every moment with his finger on the "get out" button, I don't understand why it would need...
  5. BlueWaterSailor

    Collars with Same Strike?

    Perhaps you should review the concept of moneyness. A good half of the calls on the option chain are more expensive than same-strike puts; this should not be a surprise to anyone who knows even the basics of options. E.g., in your example, the 50C is ITM by 0.35, so it has that much intrinsic...
  6. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    BTW, just discovered these guys. Top-quality anti-vatnik shitposts, DoSing Russian trolls on social media, and actual financial support for Ukraine - trucks, drones, etc. https://twitter.com/hashtag/NAFO?src=hashtag_click
  7. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    Ja, he vas chust folloving orders...
  8. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

  9. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    Current state of the Russian stock market: :D
  10. BlueWaterSailor

    Margin Test - Urgent!

    The way @ET180 described it is the right way to think about it. It's "c" (0.53). It's a poorly-written question (I used to design tests, and I hate seeing crap like that with a passion), but if you're looking for a common metric to evaluate theta across variously-priced stocks, 'b' is the only...
  11. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    'We will wrest the weapons we need from our enemies!' said Two Fire Herb. A cheer went up. 'Really? How do you actually make them let go?' said Rincewind. -- Terry Pratchett, "Interesting Times"
  12. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    No, your shilling for Putin is. Oh yeah, fer shur! A country with a Jewish president is all Nazis. They let him be elected because... yeah, the IMF and secret Protocols of Zion and something something drain blood from babies to make matzos. Hell, he's probably got a little mustache he puts on...
  13. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    Old Russian joke, structured as a news report: "The Chinese have attacked a peaceful farm on our side of the border and have been repulsed and thoroughly defeated. After it was over, our farmers secured their nuclear armament and flew away on their combat tractors..." I'd love to see Ukraine...
  14. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    [rolling eyes] Defeats on remote battlefields do not constitute a military occupation, or direct leverage to control Putin. Which is what would be necessary to "force" Russia to split up. In fact, given P's iron grip on the population, you could say it's done him no harm at all: he jails anyone...
  15. BlueWaterSailor

    Re-centering a short strangle

    The default expectancy of any trade is zero (minus friction - fees, etc.) Nothing obvious or simple works, no. And yet, there are many people - I'd hesitate to say "millions", but certainly thousands - who do it professionally, day in and day out, and take home excellent pay (or build...
  16. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    I don't have any disagreement with that - although I'd put less emphasis on the "Russians" doing the strutting and shift it to where it belongs, onto Putin. Russia's history for more than two centuries has been an unbroken run of leadership that's ranged from abysmal incompetence to outright...
  17. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    Reuters didn't post it here in support of a given agenda. You did. And since the term "aggregator" means it didn't originate with them, you are responsible for recycling ancient crap from some random source. So yeah, an exceptionally poor attempt at dodging.
  18. BlueWaterSailor

    Russia & Ukraine

    Yeah, for sure. Almost 50 years of living in the US, serving in US Army military intelligence and so on hasn't changed me at all. I note that you're still incapable of understanding a single thing I said - every one of which shows your opinion to be totally worthless - so I'll just leave you...
  19. BlueWaterSailor

    Re-centering a short strangle

    That's not how it works at all. Sorry, I don't feel like trying to explain the whole thing right now... there's a lot of reading you can do on the topic. Suffice it to say that on a new issue, buyers and sellers will work out a "fair" price between them almost instantly.
  20. BlueWaterSailor

    Re-centering a short strangle

    Neither one is actually "random" - there's a number of calculable risk/reward elements in both. Trading has true two-sided markets, much better spreads, and (at least via options) ways to express a variety of views. Casino bets don't. But yes, there are a lot of parallels - and a large base of...
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