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Just the typical auction setup for the dealers. They try to cheapen up notes before most auctions, especially if they feel their customers will not buy them at expensive levels. Reading through the Bloomberg commentary a lot of the Asians have been saying they won't buy tens until 4.60% or so...

The suspicious price activity after GDP can probably be contributed to dealers (Greenwich, Goldman, Citi, etc.) using any uptick or rally in the long end to add to bearish steepening trades and bearish option structures. Have noticed this the last few days, many of the big put positions, like...

The gold complex is nothing to the Board of Trade, how about the 10yr note doing 1,000,000 contracts a day the last three days along with about 200,000 in ten year options a day, not to mention the other contracts on the yield curve. The CBOT is all about interest rates, and when they get...

We'll see if the commercial volume goes there, they love the pits, like to know who is doing what, information flow is their key day in and day out. More liquidity is not an issue for the commercials. On the other hand, everyone these days tries to please the hedge funds and this is a natural...

Steve, Good analysis. They are indeed short 30yrs through the huge amount of FOB steepeners they have on (probably about 100,000 fives to 40,000 bonds before December). PIMCO began to take a portion of this position off late in the year (imagine just taking it off the books) and was back...

This afternoon looked like PIMCO (through Goldman) buying about 12,000 ten years or so from 14 down to 12, then back up to 14 on the close (mostly screen). So its obviously them buying down here the last few days, but who is selling? And how much are they hurting? Gotta be the dealers and...

They did same thing this morning, another probably 15,000 to the same levels. And locals probably just scratch again. This time no bid afterward, although we do push out new highs. Whoever has sold all this will be hurting if we keep grinding higher.

10 tick move from 11:00 to 12:00, that is fairly big, and I am talking 10yr notes.

That move was anything but gradual and smooth, it was bid size the whole way with what looked like some guys being forced to pay up around 16.5 and 17, with about 5,000 fired off within a few seconds. Do you think people that were on the other side, after scratching, were gonna be nice and just...

Morgan Stanley began selling ten years around 10:00am, all told by a little after 11:00am they had sold about 25,000 (the biggest about a 6,500 lot), all on the screen, between 109-13.5 and 109-10.5. Some of the pit locals were on the other side on the screen and called upstairs to find out...

Neither Pabst or I are saying to spread, I don't do it at all, but its adapting the spreader mentality. The yield curve has different maturities that do not move in lockstep, therefore every day is different in terms of what is the leading the trade, or which contract starts to signal the end...

Exactly what Pabst said, don't be afraid to roll out the curve or toward the short end. Say if the two year is just sitting size offered all day, no one lifting it, and tens or thirties have a moderate bid, wait for the two year to confirm and at least for offers to get pulled or to go small...

Yep, looked like a 7:30am number, maybe one of the whacked out non-farm payrolls of a couple years ago or a spike CPI/PPI. The "event risk" that is building up is very scary at this point. Implied volatilities in the 30yr options are at less than 7%, probably around 6.5 or 6.75%. These are...

The dip was one to be bought this morning and to hold into Philly Fed. The mortgage guys (Countrywide) were active buyers of calls right out of the gates, on the order of about 10,000 of the May 110 calls. The setup for longs was looking good until Jobless claims, which brought in some renewed...

From what I understand the CBOT has the grain spreads eagled in overnight trade and I would imagine they will do the same with RTH if they offered them side-by-side. That means if the outrights are offering a better indicative spread trade the order will be filled at those prices. In other...

In terms of a guy that just trades the e-minis and uses the pit squawk there is supposed to be a HUGE trader at Kingstree Trading in Chicago in the S&P e-minis. Other than that you will hear the biggest locals on the S&P squawk, but a lot on headsets using minis so better able to disguise their...

I don't know if you are joking or not but Bank One (which is doing the business for the Countrywide Mortgage Service Hedging Desk) bought a boatload of the May 110 calls this morning immediately after PPI and throughout the day. Probably about 15,000 to 20,000 all day, he is long long size in...

Exactly, I wouldn't get too bullish Treasuries if there was huge demand for inflation hedges (which is essentially what TIPS are) even if they are cheaply pricing inflation. Seems like the dealers are more willing to sell size into the uptick then get crazy long just yet. They have probably...

Few billion, $20 billion in Treasuries, plus another $10 billion in corporate deals, and $9 billion in Freddie Mac, enough to move the market about half a point though. Not to mention by the end of the month we will probably hit close to $50 billion in supply. We haven't even had massive CMBS...

At least a little better volatility today, but the 30yr straddle continued to get whacked before we broke, traded down to 1-12 before it found a bid. Did anyone see that enormous paper come in around 109-10, 5000 lot, 3000 lot, and then a bunch of smaller stops down to 109-08 or so. Was pretty...