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And how do you measure the probability of a certain action? You can't say that since 80% of the last ascending triangles, for example, we winners so on the next 10 I will win on 8. That type of analysis is heavily flawed. The only way you can determine the true probability of a certain market...

This is a great instrument if you know how to trade it. The volatility in this market can be fantastic!

The market is more random than traders think and less random than academia thinks. What percentage of the market movement can be explained by randomness? Who knows but even a known random time series forms patterns and trends.

Whatever happened to asiaprop? The biggest pumper of GS? The only thing these folks are good at is outright theft. Don't forget about the $5B Buffett lent to these thieves. There's probably even more money that we don't know about....yet.

You have to be passionate about it because there is a long painful learning curve and if trading isn't all you've ever wanted to do you'll never get past that stage. Once you get past that stage then it's all about the money.

RIA's are prohibited from charging a performance fee and if you want to operate as a CTA or a CPO you can only charge an accredited investor a performance fee. You can accept up to 35 non-accredited investors but you can't charge them a performance fee. Edit: Oh man, just realized this...

That's only an option if investors continue to buy their debt and part of the problem is state pensions. States can't print money so either state retirees take less of a pension or everyone else, who works for the state or not, will have to pay higher taxes. In Wisconsin they are cutting state...

One size fits all? Just trying to get people to think outside the box is all.

And to that I would give you a high five. There are many ways to trade and many ways to manage risk. It sounds as though you have found your niche. Kudos LM!

I reckon that after 20 years of trading, which including trading prop, starting a hedge fund that was profitable in every year except one, and currently running a CTA LLC, I know how to manage risk and one of the ways I manage risk is knowing how to price options based on the volatility in that...

In my experience, any trader who left a stop on was told to the leave the office and not return because all they did was lose money. It was the ones who got more creative about managing risk who got to stick around. There's a reason the highly respected prop firms and hedge funds recruit from...

I think you misunderstood me LM. My point is....should you choose there is "another way." There's plenty of ways to make money in the markets and even more ways to lose it. As I mentioned before there are certain trades where I will place a stop as close as 6 ticks, there are others that are...

The funniest part about this thread is pretty much everyone, with the exception of Bone, believes the only way to manage risk is with stops when, in fact, that's the absolute worst way to manage risk because of the randomness of the market. To say any more would only invite stupidity because...

Well said LM.

This does not mean I'm "running stops." It means I'm hunting the area where I know stops are placed and then taking the other side when the market reverses. Don't write articles (as a reporter would) and take things out of context to satisfy your bias. If you could understand everything...

Trading with the market is certainly the easier way. There are times when a trader doesn't know whether the next move is up or down and trying to guess one way or the other, and possibly reversing when they are wrong, will churn and burn an account pretty quickly. I've made that mistake more...

There are times when fading a move works incredibly well and other times when it doesn't. You have to know what kind of market your in - i.e. what's your measure of volatility - and whether the market is non-stationary or trend-stationary. Flat out denying fading as a strategy is....well...

Comical isn't it. Banks can put whatever price tag on their houses to keep their balance sheet healthy. It doesn't matter if comps are selling for 100k less. The banks can ignore that and claim their house is worth whatever they want. Simply crazy!

I hear you Stock! Run up or gap up followed by flat line blows. What do we gotta do to get an ounce of volatility? Not complaining too much. I managed to squeak about 4 points out of the market today. Days like this are actually pretty easy to trade -- just buy whatever dip the market...

Wouldn't you agree that the ranking of the city depends on the skill of the trader? An accomplished trader will fair quite well in Florida. That's exactly where I'll be heading when my kids are old enough to fend for themselves. The winters in Chicago just aren't much fun anymore. NYC...