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  1. L

    Biggest hammer evAr today

    That's funny. I had to sell my pliers---forced liquidation---even though they were made in China. Ironic, eh?
  2. L

    Biggest hammer evAr today

    The market sold off to a defensible support point. Now the question is do we rebound from here? This type of movement can force liquidations. Fear is more powerful than any other factor. I'd love to be a buyer here but am gonna wait for volatility to be shrinking not expanding.
  3. L

    Biggest hammer evAr today

    This is when pulling out the weekly charts really helps. When you are getting significant skew on a shorter timeframe price will be contained within the weekly/monthly charts. This was an ORDERLY SELLOFF not a flashcrash which means there is likely more to come. As funds and folks redeem it...
  4. L

    Fat tails

    Anybody thinking of any long trade with duration more than a few days (or hours) should rethink the situation. These sell-offs typically have long tails. Bounces will get sold. Very unlikely today was a v-bottom formation.
  5. L

    Biggest hammer evAr today

    Confirmed 1057..... When? Probably 3 months or so when that level gets tagged go all in long with leverage.
  6. L

    Biggest hammer evAr today

    Well I can tell you 1057 is a target in the spus. I do not know when but I do know that 1057 is in the cards before May 2012. The "New Low" was bought hard today. We'll see what happens around here. I doubt a runaway to the upside this time though. It would seem that we hang here and then...
  7. L

    Pimco and Blackrock say QE3 on the way....

    I hear that. I may be a dumb bumpkin but seems like a simple correction would bring a flood of money into the market. We need to hit the reset button again. I think the boom/bust cycle just gets magnified with all this funny money sloshing around. What's wrong with market upheaval anyways...
  8. L

    tomorrow forecast

    Looking scary. We could melt down. If we bounce what is the catalyst to prevent a retest and break other than technical support. I have been expecting a rally this Fall but it is too early and it's a long way to 1227/1200/1150, etc. Feels like big money WANTS a breakdown here.
  9. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    Thanks. I am trying to learn from VIX and its behavior. Interestingly we were watching the same phenom although you clearly are more savvy with regard to meaning. My take was correct so far and that is PRICE went lower but volatility is contracting. Seems many are thinking about buying soon.
  10. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    OK. So a vix of 25 would mean that 1 standard deviation of price 30 days out is 7% or less, yes? If that is true, then if vix spikes and reverses then that means that daily range is expected to decrease, yes? So If we have been having 25-40 point ranges then we would now expect as vix...
  11. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    Yeah. Thanks. I am not pedantic. Behave as in Atticus oh behave!!! What I meant to say is that Vix does not appear to have peaked. We spiked lower today with great momentum---volatility yet price was above the previous low. So is that why VIX didn't spike higher? If so then when and if...
  12. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    I have been watching vix too. But interestingly we don't usually retest without going higher. Vix doesn't trade like indices or equities which seems to indicate we go lower in a day or 3.
  13. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    Well the numbers were right on ( open, range, etc.)that is to say we did not pass the debt ceiling, open was where I expected and the market went down-- The debt ceiling pass had been factored in was old news and now the economic crappy numbers were now the news. (The market had discounted...
  14. L

    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    Well pegged it so far--- Open 1306, H 1308.75 , L 1301.75 Sunday's open represents the street's opinion where we will open Monday IF THE BILL PASSES. If we don't it's 30 points to the low of Friday and if we pass it's 30 points to the high from the close. Just guessing.
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    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    FYI The exchange sets a 5% limit in extended trading hours either up or down. Opportunity exists for situations like this because if no agreement is reached by globex open then a shakeout to the downside can occur on thin volume which will be bought because everyone knows that by Monday night...
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    ZeroHedge reports rumor of debt ceiling deal

    If we pass Monday's Open 1304 low 1302 close 1315 high 1317 Question is what we do after that. Good chance we sell-off not rocket straight up because it sure looks like we need to bottom better and the short squeeze happened a couple weeks ago and .... But we'll see.
  17. L

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    The edge is razor thin for daytrading but exists. How else is a market to function. Market makers and career traders have to eat. I agree austinp
  18. L

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    I see the merits of adding on the way up or down. 1st buy/sell at x, 2nd buy/sell at x +/- 2pts on a higher/lower retest but why would you hold through a break of your entry? Also if a trade keeps hammering at your entry price eventually it will fail. Why keep adding at that price unless...
  19. L

    Monday?

    I look at the charts and I see 1200 before we rally this Fall. It looks like even if they pass something the reality is the economy is not great. Traders are worried now with good reason. Weak stuff is selling hard, insiders are selling, and the 200d if it breaks will cause quite a downdraft...
  20. L

    Monday?

    Depends on Sunday's action. There is likely huge range. Everybody and their brother is long at the 200d which makes me think that we spike then reverse and trap all the new longs for a shakeout next week. Then we do a failed fail for the real bottom. So it's always tricky which...
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