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Of course not, just like one does not know if a breakout/down will occur. But I do believe that market's condition tends to typically be in a consolidation/congestion/ranging mode with the occasional breakout. I believe the oft-quoted statistic is that the market spends 70% of its time...

OK, as expected, the economic #s made any kind of range-bound support and resistance strategies difficult and rather risky. Multiple value areas and POCs formed temporary support lines much like fib confluences. For a while, it looked like the market was still trying to form a range between...

Take this to chit chat.

Do people not know what the heck the search function is for? For esignal users. http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=&groupid=114

Today was an extremely interesting day. It showed exactly why a trader needs multiple weapons in his arsenal. First it ranged, broke out, ranged, and then brokedown. The only thing it really didn't do was trend. The market was testing the lower range since the higher range had been tested...

There are two types of "They." The locals--the floor traders and electronic pit traders-- and the Smart Money. You will never be able to compete with the Smart Money so you have to start thinking like a local.

That could be very true, eSig's is based off of the one minute. Would I be correct in assuming that, all things being equal, tick data probably higher fidelity?

I've noticed this actually, that not all MPs #s are the same. But yes, the U contract using RTH (PST for me). Note, I did not write the code. This newsletter churns out its own value areas as well. http://www.thelikosletter.com/current/dtusa.cfm Daytradersaction has value area #s as...

Both really. CBOT also has a very good Market Profile handbook.

The classic method is via the "official" Market Profile subscription which one needs to pay for. This method is somewhat esoteric because it increments in half hours and uses letters. Not exactly the most intuitive and trader-friendly, unfortunately. However, there is a user friendly, custom...

You never know what kind of day the market throws at you. But considering that 70% of the time the market is simply ranging between values (ie "choppy") and the other 30% in a breakout/trend, a trader should have multiple weapons in his arsenal. Today, Tuesday 6/17/03, was a very pronounced...

The ATR (Average True Range) of the ES is about 15 points right now. 15 pts x $50 = $750 Your mileage may vary if you overtrade, are psychologically weak, position sized incorrectly, etc.

Updates: Commercials reduced long exposure in the SPOOS according to the latest COT report, but still remain net long. According to the Flow of Funds report, private penson funds are now flowing money INTO equities for the first time since 1997. That's a trillion dollar reservoir of cash...

Now you're differentiating between improvement in account balance and actual trading acumen, two different although sometimes correlated characteristics. One does not need trading acumen in order to succeed in a bull market. Yet one does need the skill to know when to adjust to different...

Not to be negative, but don't mistake bulls for brains. You could have made every mistake in this market and still made money if you went long.

Some breadth indicators.

10day Market Profile overlay.

Do you have a chart based on time? Say from the speculative dot com bubble? Or was ET even around then? One comparable measure of bubble mentality is how speculative membership totals become, whether ET membership rolls (both active & new) are in a lull, growing, or making new highs. Like...

How about futures trading?

Exactly my point when I posted "My Beef Against Contrarian Sentiment." AAII is crap. SHOW ME THE MONEY. Look at Rydex, COT, insider selling, etc. to determine true bullishness/bearishness. Mutual fund net flow was negative last year and slowly refunnelling back in just recently. But it...