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Apples to oranges comparison. Government and corporate bond yields represent - bar defaults - very predictable recurring cash-flows until maturity. Equity earnings using a snapshot of the price/earnings ratio do not. Especially not at historically high corporate margins.

To argue US equities are 'ridiculously cheap' based on current earnings and estimates is assuming profit margins will stay at 10% for the next couple quarters or even years. If they do then yes, stocks are dirt cheap. But that's not how you value a stream of future cash flows. Likely, over...

What about long BRK and shorting 98k/117k = 0.837 dollar volume worth of ES futures against it to hedge out the direct equity exposure. You get the non-equity holdings for next to nothing then.

Barron's interview with Hugh Hendry (from 2 weeks ago) http://goo.gl/nZUna

The author's argument is hard to follow. Because Private Equity investors are buying out small cap companies the space is uninteresting? I don't get it. That's ridiculous.

Really is that so? What data are you basing that on or is that purely your personal opinion?

Sure they're important, but no more important than dividends. Historically they were equally important as they contributed equal quantities to total returns. You're getting side-tracked in discussing high-yield equities vs. low-yield equities. That's not the point I was trying to make. I'm...

Real, inflation adjusted price returns on large cap US equities were just a tad over 1% over the last 100+ years. So you can pretty much forget about price as a real return driver unless we're about to embark on a historical multiple expansion a la 1950 or 1982. Which we're probably not (yet).

Historically, half of equities' total returns came from dividends. Take your avg. blue chip dividend rate, multiply it by a factor of two and you have a pretty good estimate for your total return over the next 10-15 years, before inflation and taxes.

Gone into hiding, just like all the smart men who were calling for an imminent Dollar collapse.

What a little douche-bag Siegel is.

Yet dozens of billions were invested in total return swaps and structured products indexed to front month commodity future baskets.

Approx. $65. Topped around @ $142 in 2008. Fair point, I was only considering near-month rolling of contracts.

If you look at the crude oil futures (as you would if you trade crude oil) you'll see it crashed in 08 and never recovered thus far, down 70% from peak. If you invested $100 in crude oil in December 2008 when spot was trading in the $35-45s - when it looked 'cheap' - you'd still have $100 today...

RIEF is not a HFT fund. And it's not Medallion which is an entirely different fund. RIEF is a quant equity Long/Short fund (100% long, 75% short) like many others with relatively low turnover from what I remember from older articles. Seems it did really well in 2011. It had a period of bad...

I believe In 'The Invisible Hands' Leitner was discussing leveraged long US bonds as cheap(er) insurance for periods of market distress as an alternative to buying equity puts if I recall correctly.

The marginal tax rate is not the average tax rate.

The good old 80/20. 80% of the clients do all the bitching and incessant feature requests while only bringing in 20% of the commissions.

You're clueless. Interest rates are low globally, across the curve because the market supply and demand drive it there. Whatever the Fed want or doesn't want is irrelevant. The Fed just reacts to what the market forces dictate. Go lookup wikipedia for "chicken or the egg".

And contrary to what some economic cultists are thinking the Fed does not control interest rates. The markets dictate interest rates.