Search results

Thanks for the links. I'm going to pursue short Aussie rates a bit more, just to see exactly what the odds would be of betting on similar or lower short term rates 2 years from now. It appears that Australia, like the US and the UK is a highly levered economy, and any extraordinary strength...

Our TARP money at work.:mad:

Any luck getting quotes or making trades on short sterllng options through IB? I also notice that Hendry is loading up on calls on short term Aussie rates. Those curves are pricing in 300BP of tightening in the next 2 years. If rates stay flat he'll do very well. If rates actually do the...

Couldn't you hedge your exposure to LIBOR by shorting front month euro$ contracts. I expect it will cost a few tics/month, but if the LIBOR/FF spread explodes again, you will be covered.

Glad to see you listening to reason.:D

I hear Big Ben was optimistic about the economy at Jackson Hole. Just found this quote ... “Our forecast is for moderate but positive growth going into next year. We think that by the spring, early next year, that as these credit problems resolve and, as we hope, the housing market begins...

The Fed head serves at the pleasure of Wall Street and the large banks. Bernanke has shown his fealty to these groups over the past 12 months. Therefore he was renominated. BO may have signed the re-nomination order, but outside of that, he had nothing to do w/it.

Good article. I'm sure the folks there are nice, but it sounds like a horrible area and hopefully this real estate bust will turn it back into the beautiful desert it once was. I'm puzzled about one of the new residents on the block - the Argentinian couple that bought the foreclosure...

Nicely said surf. Who has time to rise up when a new episode of Entourage is on in a few mintues, the Jonas Brothers concert is coming to town, and Avatar will be out by Xmas.:p FWIW, in my hood (suburban Phila), business at the stores and restaurants appears to be booming based on my...

The Fed has printed and the Treasury spent literally trillions of dollars over the past 12 months. With this kind of printed money floating around, there is no reason why the DJIA can't be at 15K by years end. It doesn't mean anything because the dollar is essentially worthless at this point...

Haven't AMEX and Discover said that deliquencies and charge-offs are improving? After all, Cramer says so, and he's always right.

Yes, Wesbury is a douche and its hard to believe he's still got a job. Here's a guy who insisted there was no problem all through 2007 and deep into 2008. After all, the Fed was cutting rates and bear markets and recessions are impossible when rates are falling! With the Dow below 10K and...

Its a reflexive situation now. By allowing banks to keep these inflated marks on their balance sheets, the gov't has (by fiat, more or less) assured that the banks can continue to operate, and operate profitably. Its not an ideal situation, but it appears to have essentially ended the cirisis...

Someone should tell these guys to read the papers. Most equity indices are up at least 50% from the lows and continue to move higher. Commodity prices are on fire. Housing prices have stopped falling. Yes, wealth has been lost. No, its no longer anywhere near 45%.

#1 - Hebert is an idiot. #2 - Even if he is right, he's describing the current situation. Ok, the unemployment rate is 20%. Things are bad. The question should be - where is it headed?

I understand. Like I said the position is a winner 9 times out of 10. However, think about the 10th time - stocks melt up w/the DJIA hitting 11500 by Thanksgiving, oil goes over $100/barrel, unemployment ticks below 9%, the dollar disintegrates - and the Fed hikes by 100 basis points in one swoop.

You mean like AIG?:D

I can't believe anybody still listens to McCulley after his classic essay "Why Greenspan will never raise rates another time in his career" written a few months before Greenspan began taking the FF rate from 1% to 5%. You're probably right about no action from the Fed, but holding Feb FF...

^^^ I gotta admit that made me laugh.:D

Its old news, and was priced into the markets ages ago. The data is thru June and we're pushing on September. It has zero predictive value, except as a possible contrarian indicator. There, you got a comment. Happy.:D