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Should be good for another 5% pop in equity markets by Thanksgiving.:p

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Maybe he gets it right this time.:D

$/Yen and GBP/Yen have been melting down. Judging by actions in the currency markets, one would think we are back in the thick of the financial crisis. Treasury market has been doing well also. The correlations everyone has been getting used are breaking down.

Yes the lien stays until satisfied, but this is hugely different than having your house taken. #1, as years go by, inflation erodes the value of the lien. #2, the lienholder will most likely take a substantial haircut if offered immediate cash. I'm not saying its a pleasant thing to have a...

I believe Goldman is talking about 'tradeable' goods. CPI in the US is more or less a function of domestic labor costs, which are falling. You could have a falling CPI at the same time that internationally traded goods - oil, metals, fertilizers, ... - are rising in dollar terms. Thiel...

Stock market rising is of a part w/devaluation of the dollar. The relative value of equities is not changing. http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1136 Seen in this light, I can better accept rising equities and rising bond prices.

I don't think anyone can take your house because of defaulting on unsecured debt. Can they sue you, get a judgement, and put a lien on your house ... yes, but that's a big difference from taking your house. I had a rental property in Phila that had liens on it for nearly a decade. When it...

Girlfriends my ass. Did you see that dog in the pic? 100% that one of them or both of them are gay (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Well 20 or 30 years ago, the Soviet Union was still in existence and the Friedman and Zakaria types were then telling us to get our act together or we would be overtaken by the Ruskies.

Both of those guys are useless know-it-alls. "Fix the political bickering in Washington". Wow. Earth-shattering stuff there.

$460K for that place? It looks like a glorified trailer.

True. Look at the Zibabwe (sp?) stock market. Easily the best performing stock market in the world.

CA is a mess, Las Vegas is a mess. Phoenix is a mess. Florida is a mess. Smokestack America is a mess but that has nothing to do w/the real estate bubble - that area has been in decline of 50 years. The rest of the country is pretty much business as usual.

Its not that simple w/option arms. The rate is what the rate is - which is currently quite low. The resets refer to the fact that at some point, foiks will no longer be allowed to make just the minimum payment each month (which is often less than an interest only payment), but will have to pay...

There is a clear division of labor here: Its Jim's job to write and give me ideas. its my job to decide what and when to buy and sell and to hopefully bank some coin. My original post that started this inane exchange was just to throw out another thought on the future by someone who ought...

LOL. You seem to have an obsession w/being right over making money. I would say when a stock goes up more than 5x in a 5 month period, it was a pretty good recommendation. Nobody said to buy MTG and put it away in a drawer for the grandkids - it was a trade made on the fact that markets...

I put that comment in there just as a comment, not to be argumentative. There are a few people in the investment community worth listening to all of the time - you're crazy if you don't think Jim Grant is one of them. Yes, Grant tends to be hawkish, but let's be fair ... he makes his readers...

FWIW Jim Grant (who has been hitting the ball out of the park in 09) is strongly in the 'V' shaped recovery camp. He thinks bonds and eurodollars are big sells. I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to anything coming out of PIMCO. Gross is a better card player than I, and i can't imagine him...

I wasn't referring to Black Swans really. Fooled by Randomness, as its title implies, in part deals w/folks who are wildly successful and think they're shit doesn't stink. In reality, they just happen to be in the right place at the right time.

Of course you recovered. When you bought you had the greatest equity bubble in history followed by the greatest real estate bubble in history still ahead of you. I don't know if you know what you are doing or not. Read 'Fooled by Randomness'. Taleb might have an opinion on it.