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Nice post from Gregor, and perhaps the explanation for why all of my trades are working :) ... http://gregor.us/crisis/the-alignment-of-asset-reflation-and-a-collapsed-economy/ The Alignment of Asset Reflation and a Collapsed Economy October 5, 2009 Abandoned Roller CoasterIf all the...

Reflation stuff: I own calls on higher oil in the form of UTS Enegry and BBEP I own MOS I own NUE I bought some TBT yesterday Deflation stuff: I own the same Dec 2010 E$ calls as you I shorted COF yesterday (this was a MAJOR winner for me in 08/09 and I'm a bit wary about...

Current situation - equities up, gold up, dollar down, 10 year at 3.20% and Dec 10 E$ at 98.40 is unsustainable. Something(s) has to break in a big way.

Peak oil theory running out of gas ... http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/10/09/peak_oil_a_theory_running_out_of_gas__97447.html These guys make a common mistake. Yes, there is still plenty of oil on the planet. To me, peak oil refers more to the fact that there are no more...

Big Ben talks about tightening in a speech tonight. E$'s selling off a bit. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB7MNBaU3bxk

Either that's a misprint or something is up ... I went to college with Steinberg. We graduated in 86. No way he was 34 in 1990.

Is she still married to Jono Steinberg?

Has nothing to do w/the economy. Greeting cards, like traditional print media is going the way of the horse and buggy.

First, the ECRI is a "black box". For all I know, its just a tweak of the Conference Boards Leading Economic Indicators (also know as the MIS-leading economic indicators). Second, like the LEI, I've never found the ECRI to be useful in trading Eurodolars or Treasuries. Third, like the...

Good post. I know its fashionalbe to say the bond market is more "inteligent" than the stock market, but unless I see some empirical data proving this, I will take issue with that statement. What seems to be crystal clear is that bonds, gold, and equities cannot all continue to rally...

That's a good one. I wasn't aware that the Fed had any credibility to lose. We sit on the precipce (sp?) of a run on the dollar and an explosive move up in equities and commodities. If (a big IF) this continues, the Fed will be hiking by early Spring at the latest.

LOL at thinking a 25 or 50 bp hike in FF would do anything to damage the economy or markets. It would strictly be a symbolic move to help the $ and ease the commodity run. The RBA hiked on Tuesday and the Aussie market (along w/the rest of the world) had a massive rally.

PIMCO got it horribly wrong (at least in their publicly available pronouncements) in predicting the rate rise cycle starting in 03/04. Greenspan is truly the emperor w/o clothes - the guy hasn't had a correct economic prediciton in forever. Even if you believed in an omniscient PIMCO and...

Its just an amazing amount of liquidity sloshing around. All financial asset classes going up. Lots of fun until it isn't anymore. Either stocks and commoditites are due for a big fall or one day the bond market is going to wake up and literally crash. Unprecedented times. Here's Kyle...

FWIW, the Aussie unemployment rate continues to rise and the Central Bank's own forecast is for a continued rise. Didn't stop them from raising rates.

I actually don't hold traditional (expensive) call options on higher oil.. What I do own is an extremely cheap Canadian company that owns some outstanding tar sands properties. The company has the properties, a lot of cash, and no debt. It is essentially a very long dated call option on oil...

You read way too much into past actions of a bureacracy (the Fed) and the daily nonsense that spews from their members. One week ago, they were out there talking about the need to raise rates before the UE rate topped out. Then we get a weak Chi PMI and a weak jobs report, and now they're out...

Aussies raised rates (unexpectedly) last night. Its pretty obvious that Australia is benefitting from the craziness in China more than most, but they're economy has as much of a consumer debt problem as the US. It can happen.

The Demise of the Dollar ... any truth to this? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html October 6, 2009 The demise of the dollar By Robert Fisk In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with...

I like Whalen, but like Daal, he was short at the bottom and instead of just admitting he was wrong, he keeps on being bearish. Eventually he may be proved right, but at a great cost.