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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Actually, I would say exactly the opposite. They started with the mass bureaucracy and are trying to build something underneath it. It took 200+ years for the U.S. to create this mess. The poor EU had it on day one! Imagine the Louisiana Purchase trying to get done with 19 different...
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    BTW, don't know if anybody is paying attention to the Verizon deal to buy Spectrum from Comcast and TWX. A big deal and a coup for Verizon if you ask me, though the market is yawning at it. I'm a VZ shareholder (6% yielder!) and very pleased.
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Nothing, although I would suggest as bad as the U.S. is, Europe is far worse (how many central banks are there in Europe, exactly WTF are they all doing). My point is that this whole saving the euro thing is as much about preserving a perverse way of life for tens of thousands (maybe more) of...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Whatever. The point is, the "experiment" is supporting a massive bureaucracy (going way beyond the MEPs) layered on top of the already massive bureaucracies of the member nations. This is what's being fought so tooth and nail for. Europe will be fine with separate currencies. Please. How...
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This is what the euro is about. This what saving it is about. Anybody who doesn't understand this is a child or has a child-like naviette (no idea how to spell it and don't feel like looking it up). http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/hilarious-video-of-eurocrats-in-action.html
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Divergences. Bring it on baby! http://www.robertsinn.com/2011/12/02/divergences/ The end of the risk correlation trade is something all should be looking forward to.:)
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The U.K. PMI came in above expectations and I'm the last one that says being able to print currency whenever you like is a panacea - it's obviously not, as I've maintained on this thread for months. Hendry has been long short sterling forever and I'm sure very pleased with the position. I'm...
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Continent is in a recession, with much of it in severe recession - lower rates and a lower exchange rate are typical policy tools. I expect we'll get both eventually. Italy can't devalue, Greece can't, Spain can't. Europe can. If they want to hold this together, the ECB is going to have to let...
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    That has to do w/taxes and regulations, not the exchange rate.
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Opinions make markets, and since you obviously have a line to Brussels (talking about a 'big bang' after europe is up 10% in 2 sessions, wow, going out on a limb there), I will defer to you.
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I would urge to keep an eye on the euro. Every time it rallies on a new solution to the crisis, it just puts more pressure on the struggling EU economies, screwing government budgets even more, requiring even bigger rescues. A beautiful reflexive action. The ECB needs to break this cycle. A...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    NFP is irrelevant unless it comes in -300K, which it won't. If action from the past months means anything, these blowout rallies don't turn around on Friday.
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bass' latest, dated yesterday, but no doubt written before Ben and Tim's latest attempt at a bailout http://www.scribd.com/doc/74335711/Hayman-Nov2011 :D
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Huh? I'm assuming you've never owned a house. There's nothing like seeing that mortgage statement and real estate tax bill each month to make you ratchet down your exposure. I'm far more conservative now (the proud owner of mortgages and annual real estate tax and insurance bills on several...
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Economy is imploding. Core is in recession, and the periphery is in depression. Banks can't raise capital, so they're slashing balance sheets. ECB with another 75 bps in cuts by mid-2012.
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Sold some euros. Europe needs a much weaker currency. I expect EURUSD decoupling from risk to be a big theme in early 2012 (i.e. stocks could do fine and EUR goes down).
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Tilson update: NFLX -3% (even today!), GMCR +5%.:p :D You just cannot make this stuff up.:p
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, obviously fade at some point, just as the dozen moves in 07/08 were worth fading, just as the half dozen bazookas this year were worth fading. Whether the day to do it is today, tomorrow, or in 2012 is a different story. Typically, these things have a very short shelf-life, but you have...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    We've been though this before partner and it bores me. I apologize for not fitting into your idea of the ideal trader. It works for me and in fact, has worked brilliantly throughout my AUD shorting over the past few months. The last week being an excellent case in point.
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    China starts to ease monetary policy. Risk markets have turned on a dime and are soaring. Get used to lots of these announcements over the coming year and the flood of nimwits coming to air talking about how everything is now a buy because the Chinese are easing. Markets turned around and/or...
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