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The SPX mark (offer) is down to 18,800. Such is why I normally scale in. If anyone wants this and has a BOM account... now is the time.

I do a tbsp of coconut oil, but not the KerryGold. That is a bit much, IMO.

I have a low-vola equity bull trigger into the close. Should help the EUR trade a bit. Not holding my breath for a quick resolution on the EURUSD touch, but two weeks to exp is a long time for the upside ditro to take out 1.3810.

Another May23 DNT, but in SPX. These are priced to ES but settled on the SPX print. 19,500//30,000 on the 1820/1912 knockout, 65/100. Neutral under flat-skew to 1866. This is actually neutral basis SPX skew at 1874. It had dropped a a few hundred so I pulled the trigger (red = downtick on the...

So tit for tat? The difference is that I actually know what I am doing.

I wish they had 11-OXO in stock.

($15,920) covered. Long the 3810 two-week touch from 81/100. My prediction is a touch by Tuesday. I will begin to short spot at 1.3775.

Only a small percentage... and you're basing this on your vast experience and success in options? Exotics? You've got one small win out of seven attempts in your choice of mkts. Why are you here, exactly? Something you can help me with on the subject?

FinMath, computing. I am probably not the one to ask, as the bulk of my ed was in life-sciences.

Cosmology. Chandrasekhar limit, dark matter (quark stars, hadronic, IMO); bubble-models. I did/do have an interest in astronomy, less so the maths. I know virtually nothing about QM. I have had Dobs and Schmidt-Cassegrain scopes since my teens.

Touch options (singles) are a pure play on touch probability -- hence the reduction of the figure to x/100.

I've got a 14-day touch 1.381. I assign the prob to exceed what I paid. I will begin to short spot on rallies and update the position when I do so.

Undergrad in physics and did some lin-algebra and topology. I am solid with maths but I always assume I know less than the guys writing the stuff. Options are a tool.

Obviously you have to choose some point on the curve (gamma) to hedge the thing. I normally let these go (unhedged), but had a significant debit at risk. The $gamma/VV got too big to ignore and I had a "stop" at 3825. I run matrices in r/t which runs touch pricing. I wasn't willing to pay more...

There are a ton of bucket shops trading atm digitals. It's analogous to opening a site betting on a coin-flip. An ATM digital fairval will be 50/100 tied to the forward rate. It's = spot if it's an intraday trade. The edge is tremendous. Say you've got a couple thousand accounts betting on...

ha, I use bog-standard vanna-volga on bloomberg pro fixed pages. GK pricing on vanillas (and VV) simply uses the fwd net of carry. IOW, watch the carry if you're modeling longer-term stuff on AUD, JPY, etc. You can stress (single touches) these statically by using touch prob or exp prob*2 under...

I took $10K to $300K in 18 months in one of these in 2003-5. I have BOM threads under "riskarb" as well. I took Trinitas Capital out of the business back in 2008 with SN exotics (DNTs on WMT, JNJ, etc). Yeah, DNTs are the meth of the vola-World. My "mentor" in exotics took less than $20K to...

I'll leave it here unless compelled, ha. wtf is the utility of trying this again? 10 accounts * 10 blowups = $100K. The whole persona reaks of some kind of Ponzi. Either he's playing with staked money (how?), his own (worse), or his backers don't know he's pissing it. No parent would give this...

Nish!

Yeah, sucks but it's a moral victory for me as I had a decent price to cover a portion of the downside. I've all but written off the DNT. I just did this one: 14D, 35D bull touch. I expect that 3810 will be hit by this coming Tuesday. May23, 24,200//30,000. 81/100 hits. 23% return if...