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Glutton for punishment: Back in long for one contract at 1459.50 as it pulled back to kiss my uptrend line. Fixed stop this time. PT limit order still at 1463.75 (+4.25 from re-entry). Back to bed.

Price reachd 1460.50, then retreated just enough to tag my trailing stop at 1457.50 (+1), then proceeded north again without me to a last paint of 1462.25 (+5.75). So not only do I get to learn that 3 handles is too close for an AH trailing stop, but I get paid $50 for the trouble. <img...

Just to find out whether this IHS means anything, took a little just-for-fun flyer in AH: one ES contract long at 1456.50. Set a 3-point trailing sell-stop, and a sell limit order at 1463.75 (+7.25). Last paint 1459.50 (+3) , which took the trailing stop up to breakeven. 3am fireworks still an...

SS, for #2 and #3, what TF do you find most useful to watch for wide-range and inside/outside bars?

Looks like head to neckline is 10 or 11 handles. Wouldn't that suggest 69/70 or thereabouts? (If you believe in that sort of thing.)

On above chart, notice IHS formation. Might be an upside reversal in the making. I'm also seeing bullish divergence on the 60-minute chart (but not the daily or 15-min). A break above the upper trendline would confirm the IHS.

Close... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1680843 width=800>

Seemed like a good idea at the time. Stopped out for -2. Brain fried, done for day. EDIT: Darn if they aren't going to close it right on a kiss of the descending upper trendline.

Short from 1455.50, downside breakout from a pennant very near the apex.

Playing this one too conservative, stopped out at 1455.25 for +2.5. I'll take it. :) EDIT: BTW, my short position trade is still on from 1485. Keeping that one on for the foreseeable future, as target is below 1400.

Short again from 1457.75.

Trailing stop, hoping for a retest of 1442, but I'll bail if it doesn't happen soon. EDIT: Nope, stopped out on second 1/2 at 1551.50 for +7.25. Now flat. Whew! :)

Short from 1458.75. EDIT: Out 1/2 at 1448.00 for +10.75 Holding other 1/2.

Nervously short from 1463.50, 1 point stop.. EDIT: Crap, they got me. :( Stopped out and flat for -1.

Nice work! Missed it, dammit.

Well there's the retest, but it didn't fail, and I'm not yet seeing bearish divergence. Maybe one more leg up? EDIT: That high at 1470 was a 50% retracement of the decline from 1477.00 to 1462.25. Probably was a low-risk short entry, and if it's re-tested I'll probably take advantage of it...

Long from 1463.50 Sold 1/2 at 1466.50 for +3 Still holding other half for 1468.50. EDIT: Last 1/2 filled at 1466.50 for +5. Now flat. EDIT: I'd be inclined to go short on a retest of 1468.75. Anyone else looking to go short near here? EDIT: Wow, no shortage of sellers at 1468! I was...

I couldn't agree with you more about that. No one knows what the market will do in the next 30 minutes, either. But traders have to develop a belief system about such unknowables, based on patterns and measures and probabilities. Our belief systems are not the same as reality -- indeed they are...

What about on average during a multi-year secular bear market? Does that staistic still hold? :confused: On average, markets go up more often than they go down. But there are periods when that's not true. and this (I believe) is one of them. The last one was seven years ago.

All my charts from Monthly to hourly look bearish as hell. (15min and down look indeterminate.) Next significant move should be at least down to the low 50s, maybe low 40s, and my hourly chart shows a plausible measured move target at 1412.50. Time is surely on the side of the shorts. Of...