Search results

I agree with your approach. Feel much more confident with Trends, Support and Resistance Levels, and factoring in Macro Economic and World Events, etc., and then afterwards checking the Probability %. Yet some traders mechanically set up there Spreads and Condors based on "80%+ Probability" for...

Indeed. When I look at a long term chart, my eye goes right to the support and resistance levels. Those levels are where actual traders bought and sold, for all kinds of different fundamental, technical, and emotional reasons. Below and above those levels is where I want to sell OTM Options...

Implied Volatility is a Future Indicator, yes. But this contradicts what jnbadger said about the calculation being based on the past 12 months' Standard Deviation data. :confused:

You and Random.Capital are actually reconfirming my own doubts about "trading by the numbers". I still think an "organic" reading of the Stock/ETF chart is the way to go. For instance, if there was a big crash 6 months ago, for geo-political reasons or some other extreme event, those numbers...

I see. Thanks for your thoughts. Not very good at my "thanks in advance" bit am I!! :D

Extra thanks! (on top of my "in advance" thanks) Would you care to make any comments on the "reliability issue"? You sounded skeptical. By back-testing the "accuracy" I was asking more about how often trades based on them have succeeded, etc. (i.e. reliability) Some people base their trades...

1. How does this calculator come up with the % number? I have a basic understanding of Historical and Implied Volatility, Standard Deviation, the Greeks, and the Black Scholes model. Is it a combination of all these things? 2. How accurate has anyone found the thinkorswim % numbers to be...

Before throwing in the towel, think I'll give FB till next week to fall back into the 20's. A couple of bad days would do it. We'll see. [/B] Out the window with that idea! Too Much Squeeeeeeeezzzzeeee above the 30 line for me. Closed the July Iron Condors for a (Not Max at least)...

It was a very small bet, so no biggie. Will probably stay away from IPOs for a while though, after I squirm out of FB the best I can! Speaking of which... Before throwing in the towel, think I'll give it till next week to fall back into the 20's. A couple of bad days would do it. We'll see. :)

Closed out the AAPL July 620/615 Bull Put Spread today for a Loss, with 30 days left until Expiration, at AAPL 583.00. Now on to my AAPL August 645/650/600/595 Iron Condor. Will AAPL close between 600-645 on August 17th? :)

I lost some money in ZNGA too - Opened in February, Closed in May. IPO's are more risky of course. No chart patterns to work with. FB seems to want to stay above 30.... :mad:

I opened the Iron Condor on June 4th with a Top Level of 30 - not quite high enough it seems. Oh well. Will probably close out for a small loss sometime this week, after FB comes back in a bit. Also Long in LNKD which is part of the same group. It's been doing quite well lately too. :)

The Short SQUEEZE is on! How high will it go? Not good for the top half of my July Iron Condor! :eek:

It won't be my first loss, nor surely my last. Batting .666 so far this year with AAPL, having hit the + column with 2 spreads I closed back in March - so can't really complain. As to "Last Hopes" (Greece's "Yesterday's News" is now being sold - Futures are quite RED!), think I'll hold the...

Original Apple 1 Computer Sells for $374,500 in Auction!! http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/06/15/original-apple-1-computer-sells-for-374500-in-auction/tab/print/ :cool:

Hope you guys are wrong about that 460 bit! Anyway, AAPL has been very calm lately (forming a Launch Pad?), and the Greek Election is this weekend. So I'm looking for Good News from Athens, and a nice Pop! early next week in AAPL. Unless it goes to 625 in 3 days (Ha!), I won't be holding...

rockefehler, Here's a new article written just for you! http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=502D3B16-1A93-4E18-A744-C4272BB28649 Liking AAPL's short term Uptrend since hitting the low of 522.18. Also happy to see its crossing of the 50 MA today. But it needs to hurry up...

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/did-greek-slap-mark-turning-point-euro-crisis-162329109.html :eek:

Some think Europe has bottomed because of the Greek "Slap Heard 'Round The World", http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJmAsybnc6s and because Spain finally sent out an S.O.S. for their banks. If "they" are right, the Euro could start rising again, then the $$ will fall back, and our stocks...

If everyone agreed on the price of FB, wouldn't this chart just show the Blue Line at 38? Then there'd be no need for all the Cool Candles - Totally Boring!! :p