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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    I agree the last 4-5 years have been very volatile, and we can't "know" a Trend will continue. But Trend Traders believe there's a much higher "probability" an established Trend of higher-highs and higher-lows will continue into the future rather than stop or reverse. So I generally enter...
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    Thanks for a load of good ideas! I pay my eIBD Subscription so they can find all the stocks with good Fundamentals and Uptrends for me. Don't really feel qualified to do it myself. Then I choose a few stocks based on their charts (look for steady long term Uptrends, Bull Flags, Support &...
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    Great image! I can see 'em all bouncing around in there.... Thanks. :cool:
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    Novation? Learn a new word every day... Will look it up. Thanks.
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    All good points. Weighing out all those factors and making a judgement call is where the fun is! (Of course it's more enjoyable if you get it right rather than wrong.) 30 days was my simple answer, but sometimes I can tell way sooner the trade is a lost cause and I get out. Other times it's...
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    Traveler, diaoptions, TskTsk, & Put Master: Thanks for your serious, non sarcastic comments and info. Personally, I think it's interesting finding out about what Options Contracts really are, and how they actually change hands, etc. I certainly haven't read or heard much about it...
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    Where is the actual Put? Is it a piece of paper in a safe, like the old stock certificates? Or is it totally electronic? Are the current Buyers and Sellers names and/or account numbers on it? It is a contract so it must be filed somewhere, no?
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    I've read conflicting info about Options Contracts and CUSIP and ISIN numbers. Does each Options Contract have one or both of these numbers so it can be traced?
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    If Someone Sells a Put I Sold Them...

    I probably should know the answer to these questions, but I don't. Perhaps it's a "brain cloud" thing... Anyway, say I sold a 500/495 XYZ Bull Put Spread when XYZ was at $503. Then XYZ falls and the stock price is currently 492. Now the Buyer of my XYZ 500 Put decides to sell his Put...
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    If you're not a teacher already, you should become one! Mucho Gracias. :cool:
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    And Implied Volatility is the same as the $VIX, which is a computation based on the sale of Puts? The "Fear Guage"? If so, what about the sale of Calls? They must count too for the Delta to go up when traders are optimistic. :confused:
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Very clear explanation. Thanks. :)
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Sorry, looking at that slide rule brought back a flood of boring memories and I fell asleep! :) But seriously, if you have the patience to explain these formulas to me I'd be grateful. What I think I know is: Delta = the amount the option moves for every $1 movement in the underlying...
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Did they do this stuff back in 1973 with slide rules? :eek:
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Must be 3 different formulas for sure. Some of those numbers are pretty far apart. Don't know what the pros and cons are for each, but all 3 are probably (!) OK for a rough guide at least. Thanks again everyone for your comments! :cool:
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Here's some of today's calculations: AAPL August 600 Calls: Delta: .36 Prob. ITM: 31.46% Impl Vol: 30.20% AAPL August 620 Calls: Delta: .25 Prob. ITM: 21.75% Impl Vol: 29.50% :confused:
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Here at last!! Help!! :D
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    Just checked, and the Prob. ITM is roughly the same as the Delta - though sometimes it's off by 3+ points.
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    For further confusion I went to thinkorswim Support! cman: We're currently have a discussion on Elite Trader Forum about your OTM, ITM, Of Touching Probability Calculator. No one quite agrees on how you come up with the % numbers. Could you shed some light on this for us? Mike: For the...
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    ThinkOrSwim's Probability OTM, ITM, of Touching Calculator

    I really appreciate you keeping at it jnbadger. ATTICUS!!!!!!!!! WE NEEEEEEEEEEEED YOU!!!!!!!! :p
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