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  1. M

    Diversification good or bad?

    The best way to make a lot of money very quickly is to hold a concentrated portfolio, and be right.
  2. M

    How much money can one trader manage?

    In (equity) hedge funds the ratio of AUM to fund employees is approximately $100M per employee. The ratio is about the same in venture capital funds. In managed futures it drops down to something like $25M per employee, because of all the giveups and other daily busywork-producing effects of...
  3. M

    Asia may start dumping Treasuries

    Asia may start dumping Treasuries. Obviously true. Asia may resume accumulating Treasuries. Also true, obviously. Elite Trader may be sold to Wal-Mart and renamed "Tradin fer Rednecks". Yes it may. Obviously true.
  4. M

    winning percentage for entries

    The OP is referring to a testing idea on page 172 of LeBeau and Lucas's (book) on futures trading. L&L wanted to measure the relative "goodness" of entry techniques independent of the exit used. (They also wanted to measure the relative "goodness" of exit techniques, independent of the entry...
  5. M

    markets - wiki ??

    It's a Brand Awareness website launched by John J Lothian, a consultant who sells his expertise by the hour. He seeks to enhance the visibility of his own brand, "John J Lothian".
  6. M

    SRS ...to the moon Edith??

    The quote is "to the moon, Alice". Spoken by Ralph Kramden, to his wife Alice, on The Honeymooners. (ref) You're probably thinking of Archie and Edith Bunker at 704 Houser Street, Queens.
  7. M

    Jokes 2

    You want the homonym with three letters, not four.
  8. M

    493 million jobs lost worldwide

    And it's all because of 10 million bad mortgages in the US? Each bad mortgage caused 49 people, somewhere in the world, to lose their job? Wow. I would guess that the average monthly payment on the average nonperforming mortgage, is roughly $6000. (Assuming it is refinanced to a 6.5% 30...
  9. M

    Dilemma in modeling idiosyncratic high-frequency noise

    bluelou: either I'm wrong about the embedded structure in the noise or there is an embedded structure and I'm the only one who can see it. Nuclear Phynance: there are some dynamics in the time series that your model is not addressing, and therefore is showing up in the residual. Perhaps NP...
  10. M

    Portfolio/ Risk Management Software

    N. Taleb has made a decent living from the observation that there is no single definition of the word "risk", nor can "risk" be captured in a single number, a scalar value. For example, if your fund has 80 positions, it might possibly happen that all 80 of them suddenly went against you, all...
  11. M

    I can predict the S&P eMinis

    "I can predict the S&P eMinis" Shakespeare mentioned people like you.
  12. M

    The Ponzi Scheme in every hedge fund

    If you're scared of "unrealized gains", invest with managers who don't have any: High frequency traders. Managers whose average trade hold time is less than a week. This approach requires them to trade only those instruments with the highest liquidity; otherwise they'd get destroyed by...
  13. M

    Dilemma in modeling idiosyncratic high-frequency noise

    A dilemma is a forced choice between two unpalatable alternatives. What you describe, is not a dilemma. Try other words. Express yourself.
  14. M

    Does anybody trade FCOJ on ICE?

    Do you mean the worst performing sector FOR BUY AND HOLD INVESTORS in recessionary environment are the softs and Top performing sectors FOR BUY AND HOLD INVESTORS in recessionary environment are grains and metals ??? Futures traders, like the people who read "Forums >> Futures Trading >>...
  15. M

    As usual Paul Krugman is WRONG on economics

    Start a petition drive. Convince the Nobel committee to nullify his Nobel Prize.
  16. M

    POLL: Are Fibonacci numbers a worthless or expensive crutch when it comes to trading?

    I find some (perhaps not all, but definitely some) Fibonacci numbers to be indispensible in my trading. Particularly "1" and "2"; I literally couldn't trade without them. Other Fibonacci numbers, I'm indifferent to. "377" ? "610" ? Who needs em. But "1" and "2" ?? Gotta have em, oh yeah...
  17. M

    Licensing new commodity index

    Market Wizard Victor Sperandeo did exactly that. He created an index and licensed it to Standard & Poors. It's now called the S&P Diversified Trend Index, and is investable via ETFs offered by Rydex. The good thing about it, from your perspective, is that Sperandeo published his sales...
  18. M

    blew my account can I ever recover?

    Market Wizards, interview #6, page 167: Interviewer: What is the most important advice you can give the average trader? Wizard: That he should find a superior trader to do his trading for him, and then go find something he really loves to do.
  19. M

    Are you living the "good life" with $10 million?

    Or buy a house/condo/coop for 1.5M cash and don't pay rent. (Pay property taxes and maintenance instead). Now your annual housing expense drops to ~ 20K per annum. You're way ahead. And when you croak, your heirs get an asset worth 1.5M.
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