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Hmmm.....very interesting question traderNik. Yes, I would agree that human behavior is very predictible at times. In fact, as I've mentioned before, I'm looking for washout volume at bottoms so in that sense I'm trying to predict human behavior but it doesn't always happen that way. I've...

This simply proves that you have never studied randomness. News is exactly the thing that makes holding overnight random. Why do so many traders want to avoid holding overnight or over the weekend? Because they don't know what the news will be because it's the random element relative to that...

Now comes the fun part. I divided the data into deciles and counted the frequency per attached. The conclusion to this is pretty simple, and something I have stated before. Overall, it forms a skewed distribution; in this case, skewed right (skewed left is also possible). The market IS...

Now, for the sake of simplicity I ran that exercise again but this time with 200 quotes. The attached chart is what the output looks like. Again, it looks like the market.

There is a lot of debate as to whether the market is random or not. I started this on a new thread so it doesn't get buried in the old one. The following few posts will offer you a proof. Whether you accept it or not is up to you. I used the =randbetween(-1,1) in excel to generate a random...

Who cares, trade what happens.

There's nothing wrong with taking those blue arrows as shorts but if they don't work you have to stop out, not average. The reason is because of what eventually happened. Let's say you sold 1 contract on all of those tops for a total of 3 contracts and now your position is set and you believe...

Yes, the stock would go to a penny, or thereabout, on extremely strong volume. You would be buying to cover your short and there will be plenty of sellers.

Ahhhh.... I got a PM that brings up a very useful question. Why don't you just stop out and re-buy at a lower price? This is what I started doing. The more I traded fut's the better my timing became. I found I'd buy, set my stop 2 points away, it would get triggered at or near the EXACT...

Trayo, and anyone who is interested in using this method, there is a very important concept I haven't discussed. The last thing I want to see is to have someone jump on this thread and say, "I tried your method today and destroyed my entire account." You should never average into a move that...

One thing I've never done in the fut's market is reverse. I used to do it all the time in the equity markets. I'm not really sure why I don't because there are times when it would have worked nicely.

Here is an example of a fadable setup. Finding the exact trigger takes a little practice but once we fall below a <i>falling</i> level of support you should be ready to buy. This is a very bullish occurance. Take a partial once the trade is showing you a profit because this could easily go to...

Oh, and if you want to trade futures spend as much time on a simulator as you can. I traded SIM for 2 months. I turned 40k into 80k the first month and 80 into -100k the second month. I knew I was ready when I blew it up. Global futures will give you a demo for a month. Give them a "pretty...

Pardon my typo's, I don't have time to proof it. Not that it would make much difference anyhow :( ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pay close attention to rising levels of resistance and falling levels of support. Fading penetrations of these...

I'm trading the ES and there are occasions where I've had to stop out of successive trades before something like the 3rd or 4th trade will be the winner. I've gotten pretty good a nailing the tops and bottoms of the markets so this doesn't happen as often as it used to. How does Buffett put...

Crap, forgot the chart.

And....fading a trend and picking a top is possible if you know how. I was looking for 2 points, the market was offering 1.50 so I took it.

No shit, so the SEC believes you are trading the way you do because you have information you shouldn't have? Well...there's no defense like the truth. If I ever received one of those citations I'd invite the to my house for a few days.

Very good analogy. Will lightening strike in a thunder storm? Yes. Ok, where? The world is random and the markets are just an extention of the world we live in.

andrewbee, absolutely right! If you haven't read this book you will never understand the forces that drive the market. Fearless9, made another great point. There are players out there executing trades for reasons that are completely unknown to us. They may be closing a short hedge at an...