All this BS is backward looking. Velocity of money has already picked up. Look at the rate of re-financing in December. As mortgage rates fall further, you will see a further surge. The fed is injecting money directly into the economy via lower mortgage rates, which is a levered instrument...
I agree with the OP. This market is severely overbought and will see some downside starting Monday or Tuesday. With that said, I'm not sure a re-test of the lows is in order. Maybe a 30-50 point pullback.
Oil is bouncing, I think it will test the 55 range by mid Jan. OPEC is finally complying with their cuts. China and US will resume filling their SPR's very soon at these low prices. It won't be long before inventories dry up.
This program is going to get the economy moving ahead again a lot faster than most think. Imagine most people saving up to 1000 a month on their mortgage. It will be so cheap to buy a house now, especially with prices down 40% in most places in the West. There are a lot of people with shitty...
I've been watching these lately. Even the BBB paper is off the lows. The equity markets have not rallied at all in 2 weeks, only consolidation. I suspect we are due for a massive spike higher.
On this video it talks about the government borrowing from the economy. But fails to talk about the government borrowing from overseas, or directly from the Fed. If the government borrows from the fed, it creates inflation from the printed money, and does not contract the money supply by taking...
Copper, just like the rest of the metals is in a pullback. If you think about the worldwide stimulus packages for infrastructure/pork projects, copper is the first to benefit from it. I have been looking to put on a pair trade soon for short gold, long copper.
Another issue with the data is that Americans save differently than Asians. Asians put their cash in the bank which is debased by deflation. Americans put their money in real estate which historically keeps pace with inflation. The current real estate bust is merely an anomaly in the overall...
I have realized that the amount of idiot spammers and flamers has made this sight almost useless as a trader's forum. I have been struggling to overlook this for some time, but now am fed up.
Americans have a strong belief that you are what you think. Therefore, they believe that if you spend your money, and expect more to come in the future, you will always have more money.
The drop in the volatility indices, Vix, vxo, vxn, is a direct result of the easing in the credit markets. There has been a massive improvement in credit market indicators in the past month.
Partly, from what I've seen, stores marked way up to mark down. People this year are more aware of this, and won't be had. People really are looking for deals, and they expect prices to come down similar to the amounts they've seen their housing prices fall. I think retailers are in for a tough...
This is part of the plan that central banks have been planning for about 5 years. They have been trying to correct the global imbalances between the US and Asian nations. Think about Paulson pressuring China to devalue the dollar and strengthen the Yuan.
Since we are now in the shitstorm...
I find most people that post on this forum are just here to troll or flame. But, I will join a thread at times when I see something useful. This thread is actually a great indicator. You can see the bearishness of the street. I am of the opinion that the OP is correct and that things are setting...