Search results

  1. N

    Short term top call here...? Sold stonks into bear mkt rally

    That is all true but the drop in the USD is necessary for a global recover if it were to happen. That is simply the math of being the reserve currency. Since 5/13/22 it has dropped about 3% so that is significant. Ironically right now it is being driven by the commodity currencies rising mainly...
  2. N

    Can someone give me some miners with fat divvies?

    I think the Gold Miner dividends are safer and less prone to cyclical collapse unlike the global metals miners (VALE, RIO, BHP, etc.). Just a few months ago the metals miners collapsed on the order of 20-40%. In the end there is no free lunch. Any company with a higher dividend than the market...
  3. N

    The Last of Lehman Brothers

    There are parallels to the 2007-8 bubble at least in terms of Fed mismanagement. Subprime is contained == Inflation is transitory Of course the Fed's lack of knowledge of the depth of the shadow banking system in 2007 is what really doomed their analysis. And their insistence that real estate...
  4. N

    Bitcoin "Freefall"

    Seems like BTC has become decoupled even from QQQ. ETH down 6% on a day Nasdaq was flying? Something is wrong here.
  5. N

    Calling it - today was the low

    This rally has legs as long as the US dollar keeps dropping.
  6. N

    Short term top call here...? Sold stonks into bear mkt rally

    Short term the most important indicator is the US dollar. As long as it goes lower to sideways this market most likely goes higher. Its lower again tonight. A rising dollar is the harbinger of death for the equity markets.
  7. N

    SNAP - oversold, bounce coming? or keeps selling

    I like to read forums/channels where 20somethings hang out and I noticed over the years they went from using Facebook to Snapchat to now using TikTok mainly. I would say Youtube & TikTok are the main vehicles for most of the posts I read. Snapchat is still different than TikTok. Snapchat seems...
  8. N

    SNAP - oversold, bounce coming? or keeps selling

    It was an amazing move that stopped exactly at yesterday's high of $14.57. I guess the algos changed direction.
  9. N

    SNAP - oversold, bounce coming? or keeps selling

    Nothing but lower lows all day. I was surprised it didn't really stabilize. At least Pinterest was tradeable today. I think Pinterest would be easier to trade since they cratered on Snap's news but they are pretty different platforms. When the QQQ rallied in the morning after the selloff PINS...
  10. N

    U.S. court sides with SEC on market data overhaul in blow to big exchanges

    I always wondered why CME data fees were so much less than ICE? Does ICE cater to institutional traders or something?
  11. N

    Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

    If you're short better exit. Looks like another crazy reversal. The ANF & SNAP earnings really tanked this market hard. I'm not an NBA expert but the local team here should win again -- Warriors.
  12. N

    Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

    I went long shortly after the open. My reasoning was with the Euro, Pound, AUD going up so much there was a high probability of a equity rally. Looks like with USD dropping 3% now in a week or so it could be the start of a global rally. I think UUP could drop down to $26.50 which is the 100-day...
  13. N

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    I think the bottom, capitulation, etc. will probably come when unemployment starts ticking higher. That seems to be last thesis of the permabulls on bubblevision. That seems far away since supposedly there is 2 jobs for every 1 person looking. That's probably a mirage anyway.
  14. N

    Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

    NQ just lost 170 points in a little over 2 hours. Below 11850 means down to 11640. I still don't know who would buy this overnight. Its not like the Asian markets were doing that well overnight. June K200 was up 0.23%, N225 is down so is the HSI.
  15. N

    Australia’s property boom making the nation poorer

    Best not to have too much government interference. In the US the FNMA (commonly referred to as Fannie Mae) is historical and it goes back to the post-Depression banking & housing collapse. Can you recommend any good books on the economic & political history of Australia? I'm curious to read...
  16. N

    Tether collapse journal

    Not a very good movie. Breakin' 1 was far superior. Even then you have to like break dancing & Electrofunk.
  17. N

    Australia’s property boom making the nation poorer

    Same problem here in the San Francisco Bay Area. I think it has one of the lowest unemploymnt rates in the US -- 2%. Here you have 3 or 4 people sharing a 2 bedroom flat because the rent is like $4-5K/month. Banks here will give you up to 4X pre-tax salary for mortgage but even then you...
  18. N

    Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

    Doubt it will stay green for long. There is simply no fundamental reason to buy this market especially the QQQ. Last Friday the NQ futures went from +1.6% to -2.4% in about 5 hours. There hasn't been a sustained rally of more than 3 days in quite a while. I'm short 1 NQ contract but I have some...
  19. N

    Australia’s property boom making the nation poorer

    I think this is what people call neo-Feudalism. The post-Depression (at least in the US) solution was an incredibly high marginal tax rate in the area of 90% for the leisure class and businesses. In reality the businesses just reinvested in the company to avoid have excess income. My guess you...
  20. N

    If I Was a Trader, I’d be the dumbest Trader on Earth

    If you're not a trader then the best to do is hedge your equity with futures, leveraged ETFs or just DOTM (deep out of the money) puts on the index you are long. Futures is the best since it is almost 1:1 hedging with your equity. If you use -2(3)x ETFs you probably have to adjust the hedge...
Back
Top