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20 trade samples seems like a way too small sample size to get a true sample of if the pattern truly has an edge though, no?

Hey all, I am not an experienced trader, however, whenever I am looking to do some backtesting or evaluating results, my mind automatically goes to "how would this have done compared to just buy and hold?" I have done some simple backtests and I automatically dismiss the system because they...

Thanks for the comment. yeah, I have no interest in programming, and I heard Amibroker was pretty good. I might go that route.

thanks for the comment. What exactly do you mean by this? To give you context, I was trying to backtest some visual patterns manually going bar by bar with no data leakage, but to get a sufficient sample size, it was just way to long to do. Are you saying there is still value to this approach?

Beginner here looking to start with python because manual backtesting like I have been doing is just simply too inefficient. I wanted to construct some basic parameters to test something like buy when the OHLC of the bar is completely below a lower Keltner Channel. Exit after 1 day, 2 day, 5...

I used to love reading these books but as I've gotten more experienced, I honestly think most of these guys here were just cowboys who got lucky and there is no real substantial applicable trading lessons from them. Not quoting but I know there are similar stories to "I was on vacation, and I...

I wouldn't consider it "late" but rather just something to be aware of. The yield curve inverted in 2006 and 2007 and 2008 weren't the best years for equities.

I believe this is the first time the yield curve has inverted since 2006. After that, the next few years have been choppy for US Equities. Do you think it makes sense to lower exposure to stocks for the next few years? Or would this overall trying to time the market just hurt your returns in...

Even though these sound good on paper, and backtesting they look great, when I forward tested some with out of sample data, they don't hold up. Is there a secret sauce I'm missing?

TBH this is what's holding me back. I fail to see any viable method that noticeably outperforms buy-and-hold SPY. Yeah, I've seen methods that make money, but it doesn't hold water once you compare to buy and hold. I guess there are inefficiencies out there that do, but I've not been smart...

Looks like a great starting point. I appreciate this brother!

Another question for you. I don't have any experience in coding or backtesting. Do you know if any sites similar to this where I can do some simple backtesting?

This is awesome! Thanks for the links, its really helpful for somebody who is a rookie trying to get into the quantitative numbers without having any real coding or math background.

what type of trader are you? High level can you describe your strategy/strategies? (i.e. equities, futures, mean reversion, etc.)

Did you do a monte carlo sim for this? The charts are very helpful to see the #s play out visually.

Dude, what's your problem? I have an outside life and a full-time job. I don't spend 24/7 on the board. I post questions and when I have time to reply, I will. Sorry I didn't reply to your comment in the timeframe you expected.

From what I've researched, you'd be one of the top traders if you can do this. Seems a little unrealistic, no?

Was just wondering, for those of you who were good enough to raise outside capital, how did you do it? What's the best way to set it up from the beginning to build a track record? (i.e. account type, legal structure, etc.) Does it matter what type of account your trading track record is...

Just wondering how many traders compare their trading results to something like just buying and holding SPY, or any other S&P500 fund, ETF, etc. Was wondering if its productive to do this or not.

I'm not trading anything yet. I don't have enough confidence to risk my capital yet. I'm trying to figure that out.