Search results

  1. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    The reason why I established a long position on US bonds while the dollar is still falling is because the treasury market doesn't seem to care: 1. Bond prices are just moving as expected since early April, so it's as if nothing serious would be happening. 2. Nothing serious is happening...
  2. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Established long position on 30 Yr's, so I'm in too.
  3. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    We focus on the numerator and tend to forget about the denominator.
  4. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I would like to add a couple more items to the list: industrial and price data coming from Europe this week. The last time the dollar was in a similar situation was in December 2004 when it finally bounced on disappointing inflation and growth statistics from Germany and France. Yes...
  5. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    If there is nothing tomorrow or Thursday to stop the dollar from falling, you bet. $750 with no problem at all.
  6. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Gold has been like a cheap movie plot lately. Reaches $640, stops, and thinks Is the dollar still falling? Yes. Races to $680. Is the dollar still going down? Yes. Goes to $700...
  7. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Not exactly. Those are internal signals -- internal to a market -- that are similar to pivots. By sentiment, I usualy refer to a bias revealed by the combined action of all financial markets.
  8. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    We're probably just two or three days apart to start riding a wave that will probably last, oh, between 4 and 6 weeks.
  9. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    You probably did the right thing. I haven't because of my strick adherance to the rules and criteria constituting my method.
  10. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    In two or three days it's all going to be sorted out.
  11. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    For bonds, price action was bullish all week last week and was still bullish today. Very, very hard not to jump in. That darn dollar...
  12. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    For the first time since late January, I'm getting conflicting signals from my price models. I have data indicating that Friday's employment report triggered a move away from 1310 toward a new equilibrium somewhere higher than where prices are right now; while another program is telling me that...
  13. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    If it weren't for the falling dollar, I would jump in at the end of the day but I will wait for the first catalyst of a dollar rebound. The dollar is searching for a bottom like gharghur2 says, and I think that any of the following events that could happen this week would create the bottom...
  14. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    It seems like when bonds have been oversold since mid-April, at the same time the dollar started a new leg down after breaking through their previous low of the year.
  15. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    This morning's report obviously supports my plan to buy 30 Yr calls next week but I have growing concerns about the falling dollar and the fact that gold did not top at $680. I have decided to manage uncertainties affecting my trade plan by waiting for additional validation. If the dollar...
  16. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I'm looking at the COMEX June contract. If the dollar is not able to recover from the G7 jitters then I agree, the next stop will be $700.
  17. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    $680 looks like a top for gold.
  18. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Looks like oil might be completing a double-top too.
  19. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    Stocks, commodities and the dollar seem to be globally responding to higher interest rates today.
  20. S

    Bond rally nearing an end?

    I was a little bit too abstract. By "data" I also meantnon-numerical data such as anecdotal evidence from the business community. A lot of it transpires in the Beige Book but with a delay of several days or weeks; output from advanced economic models and knowledge of the most recent...
Back
Top