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You brought up a lot of good points BlueHorseShoe. The stock market has topped and the fall of equity prices around the world will also impact oil prices and inflation concerns. At that point, both the short end and the long end will pull bond prices up. I'm not "hoping" (very good...

Makes sense.

Funny how we're all quiet after the post-FOMC arss kicking.

Absolutely and that's why many of us established a position before the FOMC statement but the bond market is reminding us this morning that it doesn't always work that way. My original plan was to wait until today's 10 Yr auction that I still expect to be successful but my technicals turned...

Actually, my father was and that's probably why I feel my country is the planet we live on, with no people better or worst than the others. And I'm expressing that as a simple state of mind <u>without any insinuation</u> or any intention to start a political conversation. In any case, my...

An observer could use the dominating opinions expressed in this thread as the output of a diverse collection of minds operating in total freedom, meaning that everyone's specific experience or intuition is allowed and encouraged to contribute ideas, questions and impressions that pushes with an...

Welcome to the club.

LOL. I'm laughing at myself for what I am about to answer because I'll probably sound like a politician: I noticed that during the hour before an important annoucement, traders tend to step aside (and information is <i>withdrawn</i> from price fluctuations) but just a minute before the...

This phenomenon is usually traders stepping aside as opposed to new and crucial information being integrated into prices.

Yup, and that eventually means molti soldi in tasca.

I'm flabbergasted. That's it! That's what it is! Now, I actually remember that I had the exact same thought for a brief second while reading Bernanke's testimony, where he was talking about deciding to pause.

Thanks Pabst. I also noticed the same parallel. Stocks have either topped this week or will do so in a month from now if bonds survive the FOMC statement blunder and rally for a few weeks like they were set to do, before resuming their downward trend later in June.

done

That statement was a big mistake. They should have said <b><i>the extent of such firming</i></b> instead of <b><i>the extent and timing of such firming</i></b>. My explanations: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1066904#post1066904

While getting indications of slower growth from Fed comments and economic data during the months of March and April, markets continued to expect few more rate hikes. If anything was going to change because of weaker data it was the extent of policy firming but markets had not even reacted yet to...

They should have said <b><i>the extent of such firming</i></b> instead of <b><i>the extent and timing of such firming</i></b>.

From the <b>January 31st</b> and <b>March 28th</b> statements: <i>The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to...

Normally it would but inflation concerns is what has been driving the bond market down in April. Another leg down in bonds and the dollar would definitely bring stocks down.

Based on the information shared with(through) Maria Bartiromo a few days ago and how markets reacted afterwards, they will probably find a way to tell us that a pause in June is less likely to happen than what has been priced in inflation-risk premiums and FX rates. If it's the case, the...

News is new information when 1. the current trend is exhausted and the market is predisposed to react to new developments; OR 2. when news contain new elements that can't be explained or couldn't be anticipated.