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What about readings from your sequential indicator? Any progress?

Good point. My problem is overconfidence coming from my ability to pick out the Dow Jones' reversal points (demonstrated in my posts) while insisting in trying to understand the structural differences between the bond and stock markets in order to gather a better understanding of both markets...

I still have a price target of 113/114, and I think that what is going on now is some kind of exhaustion with Friday’s unemployment report as the last opportunity for bears to play their cards IF they have any left. I have very little problems playing trend reversals in stock prices but have...

I haven't changed my opinion yet.

I've owned WFMI shares for 4 years now and originally bought them because of demographic factors. The Wall Street Journal had an excellent article sometime in 1993 (if I remember well) about the financial situation of the baby boomer generation and what it meant for stocks in the future. The...

Just an outright purchase of call options (same month/strike) to bet that the 10 Yr Note will move close to 114 in the next two or three weeks.

Will take agressive bullish position on 10 Yr Note on market open with several out-of-the-money options.

It depends what you mean by lower. From $59.50(now) to something like $59.20, or something more... substantial?

Since we seldom talk about stocks without talking about oil, I would say that oil doesn't look like any threat and will continue its peaceful and tranquil journey in the $60-$61 range for a few more weeks.

I don't see any change in trend but stocks are oversold. The Dow should be back somewhere between 10700 and 10800 soon.

A good paper on news and interest rate expectations: http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Conferences/2004/Connolly_Kohler.pdf

I agree with your reasoning but I put exceptional weight on those meetings because of the way they have influenced short term trends in the past -- especially recently (May 3, June 29/30 and Aug 9) at times when Fed communication didn't contain anything new. Another reason is the build up of...

I'm back. I still see 10 year notes moving from 109 to 114 but I won't try to hide the fact that my timing was bad. I now see the catalyst to be next week's FOMC meeting, something that would be much more typical with bonds.

I can only speak for myself but when I talk about bonds I talk about futures contracts.

I also think that industrial production will play a big role at this stage of the economic cycle because the bond market has mainly been reacting to stock prices lately -- as a proxy measure of <i>freedom</i> enjoyed by the Fed to increase interest rates -- so something such as a big decline in...

The bond market has more large price moves attributed to just-released announcements than any other market. With that in mind and being convinced that bond prices are about to jump, I am having difficulty determining what the catalyst will be or, to put it differently, what has been making...

I think it will go down to $58 or close to it but bounce back and fluctuate around $60.

Fortunately for those fearing this scenario, oil seems to have found a nice and cozy equilibrium around $61 that might last for a while, which reminds me that I should go to bed now.

You definitely have my vote for the best trading environment.

There's a lot of natural light. Nice.