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  1. J

    calculate win probability . how i do this

    I've never quite wrapped my head around the idea of legging into a spread. Let's say you're bullish on the underlying, and you wait for a pullback to buy a call. You nail it. Stock reverses, and moves up maybe a strike or so. Now is prime time to sell a call, as premium has increased, right...
  2. J

    Websites or platforms for charting IV and HV

    I don't mind a subscription service. Free is always better, but if there is value there, I'll pay.
  3. J

    Websites or platforms for charting IV and HV

    Yeah, I've looked there -- doesn't seem that I can do any analysis on the vol chart (moving averages, other indicators). Am I missing something?
  4. J

    Websites or platforms for charting IV and HV

    I would like to run some TA on volatility, but my options broker (optionsXpress) is woefully limited in its ability to show IV and HV on a given stock or ETF. Time frames are fixed and no modifications to the charts are possible. (Actually, there is the option of adding a vol study to a...
  5. J

    Synthetic Call

    IB? Interactive Brokers? Regardless, if you sell one put and short 100 shares of stock, you have a synthetic SHORT call. STOCK = CALL - PUT - CALL = - PUT - STOCK
  6. J

    calculate win probability . how i do this

    Short term, it's easy to imagine extracting profits from DITM spread trades. Shit just hasn't hit the fan yet. It won't, except for that 1 out of 10 times it does. How you manage those trades seems key, if anything.
  7. J

    Synthetic Call

    Short stock and short put is not a synthetic call. Are you trying to short calls?
  8. J

    3d printing. Any gone public yet?

    What exactly is the point of this thread? On the very small chance you're serious and just don't communicate well, look into DDD, SSYS, XONE, and VJET.
  9. J

    TWTR - Earnings this Monday October 27. Buy OTM Oct31 calls on Monday

    Plus 11%, minus 11%, it's the size of the move that counts, right?
  10. J

    Iron Condor - Is this the best?

    Jeez, that was painful. It's like Groundhog Day.
  11. J

    TWTR - Earnings this Monday October 27. Buy OTM Oct31 calls on Monday

    You're bullish on QQQ so you think it will drag FB & TWTR higher? Why not form an opinion on FB & TWTR and let that drive your thoughts on QQQ?
  12. J

    Iron Condor - Is this the best?

    It might be wise to step back, take a breath, show some contrition, and move on. Posting here is like taking batting practice against Clayton Kershaw -- you may not know you're out of your league, but it should be come abundantly clear in short order. I have learned SO much from these forums...
  13. J

    Short term directional trades -- ITM, ATM, OTM and expiry?

    I've never traded futures -- can you elaborate?
  14. J

    Short term directional trades -- ITM, ATM, OTM and expiry?

    I would like to get some clarity on the "best" strike & expiry selections for ~ 1-day trades on long calls and long puts. Previously I was advised that ITM long calls make good sense because of limited exposure to volatility and time decay. That has proven to help my trading, but I haven't...
  15. J

    TWTR - Earnings this Monday October 27. Buy OTM Oct31 calls on Monday

    What does FB have to do with TWTR?
  16. J

    Hypothetical ?

    You're the one who's illiterate. Read what he posted AND THEN READ HIS CLARIFICATION, which has nothing to do with VIX. I may be a "Jimmy", but you're a fucking moron.
  17. J

    AAPL - Earnings this Monday October 20. Buy OTM Oct24 calls on Monday

    Profits are great, but you had a $105 target. You terminated your "flawless" trade well short of your target, and the underlying actually ground its way past $105. You left ~ $400 on the table. "Flawless".
  18. J

    Hypothetical ?

    Really? "I was thinking of buying calls and puts in the SPY."
  19. J

    Hypothetical ?

    Why would you buy calls if you thought the top was in?
  20. J

    Exiting a Profitable Trade

    What's your current extrinsic exposure? Where do you think the underlying is headed?
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