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As a follow up to this thread, does anyone know how often commodity indexes are in backwardation and what determines the shape of their curve. I understand they are cashed settled, how do these indexes track the curve of their underlying ?

How do you go about finding an auditing firm and how much should you expect to pay ? At what point does it start making sense to audit your track record, let's say you have managed accounts of 10 K for a couple of years and you want to show an audited track record. Is it worth it ? Are there...

Debaser and peilthetraveler you are talking your book , like all goldbugs always do. I have been long silver certainly sold way too soon (but again silver is so risky that I am not kicking myself )then shorted it and made money, now I am still short but with a tiny position that I may increase...

no way silver is a screaming buy right now, the risk is too high for new longs. Risk in silver has always been asymetric, to the downside. Also regarding the failure to deliver, exchange participants have no incentive to require delivery at expiration. They get the spot price at expiration, +-...

really ? why ? what makes dealers so confident ?

yeah I think there is a very good chance silver will rise just above $40 . btw what was the exact top ? It shows around $ 40 on continuous futures charts but articles of those days mention $50 + prices for silver . As for the inflation scare, I just looked at a CPI chart since 1950, silver...

I think silver is rising on speculation, chiefly speculation of a new metal ETF, at least that's what I have heard. I also hear the market is cornered by one or two big traders. To me this isn't necessarily bullish, such news come out near the end of a move.The 1979-1980 rally ended with the...

Isn't that the same thing people have been saying for years, there is not enough silver in inventory to fulfill the promises of delivery ?

Isn't it generally better to choose an option with a delta of 0.5 or around ? You then count on delta to increase with a favorable move. This gives you leverage and more protection in case of an unfavorable move.

that's why systems can do better with human discretionary input.

I am talking about the ex-SAC guys. Isn't he one of them ? They started their thing while working for the market wizard.

hello @ the OP nice charts, Ameritrade ? what program is this, and do they nowoffer futures ? Where do you find info on USDA news and other market moving events ? And which are the key events moving the grains ? Personally as a chart reader like most everyone here, I find that a...

Don't you know yet that many of these success stories in the press are always embellished and juiced up , the reality is not so quite perfect. The good boy who made it on his own, against all odds lol ! Yeah Keep the american dream alive. btw I am still waiting for the SEC to stop this...

Very disturbing indeed, mergers destroy value. They should be outlawed for large companies. This is what got us into trouble in 2008. And for traders merging exchanges are not good news. Exchanges should never have moved away from their traditional model .

I don't think that's a sound reasoning, silver is an industrial metal and when emerging economies will come down , it will drop fast. Rationalizing on the basis of fundamentals is often a big mistake. Now it may go above $40 in a spike , but the problem is risk/reward is historically...

I wouldn't short it now . I have been short from the top, took some profits at the recent bottom, but should have taken more. It's insane, what's driving silver, it's a totally different market than a few years ago. It wouldn't rally back like that in the past , not so fast. And this parabolic...

There is a problem I think with this reasoning . I would think that rising real rates are not impacting people's consumption habits as much as rising inflation. People don't think in real terms , if their mortgage explodes in real terms, they won't feel the pain as much as if it is inflation...

Why the divergence ? Junk is way outperforming in the face of rising rates that are taking down the investment grade bonds. What does that imply for the junk bond market ? Seems to me that one or the other has to give, this divergence cannot continue for long, right ? Is this part of the...

It's well known that contango is limited by the full carry, still I believe it can exceed the full cost of carry on rare occurences. How often does that happen ? Now it's also well known that in backwardation there is no limit to the premium the front month can command over deferred...

what do you mean ? As far I am concerned I don't really care about support, you didn't need it if you didn't update. I never update QT, now let's pray that the best brokers don't make it impossible to use the old QT because of their "improvements". Barring that , if I understand what's been...