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Exactly. And be "assured" that the BoJ / MoF will defend the 110 or 100 level. Borrow Yen risk-free and invest in anything yielding more. That's been going on for years.

toc, there are 2 main forces driving the cyclical bull market of the past few years: 1/ "helicopter" money i.e. a credit bubble basd on negative real interest rates (suppressed by FCB buying to prevent appreciation of their currencies), printing of counterfeit money by the Fed and other CBs...

Amen, Kensho. Unfortunately, modern US seems to think that monetary inflation is the panacea. Btw, another issue to factor in, is that while currently interest rates (e.g. 10yr around 5%) are still low by historical standards, the american economy is MUCH more leveraged than any time in...

So, what is the pic of funnymetals?

So, buy-the-dip people (not suprising, due to "Pavlov dog" type "education" of the past 3 yr) believe that valuations don't matter anymore? On prior occasions, like April-05 (when DJI fell to 10k), large declines were countered by huge pumping of liquidity and printing by the Fed. Stocks...

I had some discussion in one of the various Google-threads in ET (there are so many, I can't find it anymore) where someone claimed that Gmail was so "reliable" that he moved his company's email over to it. I would just like to mention that Google's Blogger (which is a place where people host...

I've asked a long time ago for the feature to "subscribe" to certain posters (e.g. those in one's buddy list). Much as I'd like to, I don't have the time to monitor ET during the last few months.

Ignore the P/E reading in previous message. Btw, I haven't posted in some time in ET and find the new 10min change policy very problematic. I often came back to correct a typo or rephrase/clear things.

Would someone familiar with Japanese market funnymentals write a few things about it? I read that NIKKEI225's P/E is over 50. Some arguments in favor of Japanese market imply that there's a lot of cash on the sidelines (in checking accounts etc) and that those funds "have to go somewhere"...

Again, I don't understand any of this... According to IPE and Brent-oil-ETF website info, Brent is used to price about 65% of the world oil market (vs about 5% or so for NYMEX WTI). On the other hand, the Louton explosion this weekend in England affected stocks which are estimated to be...

I always thought of trading and religion as very incompatible ventures. Or even "investing". I'm talking about the Christian religion here, which I know something about. E.g. how could a religious trader buy oil or nat.gas? knowing that by driving its price up, it might become unaffordable...

Also, any ideas why the spread between NYMEX and Brent has narrowed from $2-$3 to $0.4 during last few days? NYMEX Jan06: $60.5 Brent Jan06: $60.1 This must the the smallest spread between the two that I've ever seen.

But... Why would anyone need to use the derivatives market to take delivery, when the physical market is drowning in oil and no-one is coming to take it (per OPEC)? After we have reached a level of inventory to provide a reasonable cushion against events like Katrina, what is the...

Well, Saudis say is that there is no DEMAND for them to pump more. No buyer. If they pumped it anyway, they'd have to build storage facilities to keep it above-ground. What purpose would it serve? Sounds very much like the reason LOOP in US is giving for refusing delivery of more oil. No...

But... this would imply that no new capacity is coming online. On the contrary, 2005 was expected to be the year when most new capacity would come online:

Not to defend OPEC, but they've been re-iterating the fact that they have spare capacity on every occasion. Also, they've been talking about "paper barrels" since 2000: 22-Sep-2000 The secretary general of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), Rilwanu Lukman, says the...

I've seen the arguments you mention several times, but what bothers me is that they are in direct conflict with OPEC's official line and with all factual data. OPEC said, just 2 days ago, during their meeting that the offer for 2Mbpd of extra pumping they offered to the market back in Oct05...

losloslos, Please open one or more thread in the Journal section and post your trades. Especially if it's going to be rapid-fire in/out stuff within minutes. Better yet, join some online chatroom.

Inclusion in SP500. IMO the powers that be are waiting to unload to the index tracking funds which will have to buy.

Thanks for your post, I've posted the same facts here in ET in the past (even during the Sep05 frenzy). Yet, considering the "oil glut" I fail to understand why arbitrage fails to bring the futures market in equilibrium with NYMEX/IPE contracts. The only explanation I can think of (since...