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IMO Hussman is a very bright fellow (with a good real-time track record as fund manager) China Revalues There's no such thing as a "baby step" when you're standing at the edge of a cliff. By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

If this were big players who was actually looking to sell Euro/USD (USD is such a good value afterall ;-), wouldn't he wait a few minutes or ticks, so he could sell into the aforementioned stops above 1.2290 (futures) prior swing high? Or even if the market didn't have enough momentum reach...

Anyway, I was looking at Euro's action right after the China reval, last Thursday. <img src="http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-07-22/euro-jul05.png"> Notice that the rally was stopped a 4 ticks (1.2283 vs 1.2287) before reaching a "breakout" level of the previous 10,20 days highest high...

I'm perplexed with Thursday/Friday's forex action, although I can't say I didn't expect it after the V-reversal right after the runup after the reval news hit the street. Disclaimer: I subscribe to the idea that there's a "they" (big players who can and will force the market's hand, spitting...

To put it in other words, the "moral hazard" has spread to all asset markets. VIX in stocks lowest in 20yr (except some days in 1994), credit spreads in fixed income, suggest that people perceive no downside risk whatsoever. No risk, either in valuations or economic / geo-political. Could...

I've never met a Japanese trader (although I've met traders from all over the rest of Asian zone and Australia). I have read that the average Japanese keeps his savings in cash (not stocks like Americans do to a degree). In the case you describe, i.e. "cash under the mattress" (or in safe...

USDJPY hits fresh high for the year The Japanese yen reached a fresh low against the US dollar this morning as stop-loss orders were triggered pushing USDJPY north of 112.70 – its highest level since May 2004. Yen bulls were looking for some indication from Chinese officials regarding the...

Absolutely agree (that savers shouldn't get screwed), BUT then WHY, OH WHY, would the powers that be in US have US households increase their debts by 55% since 2000 to over $10 TRILLION, by pursuing a negative real interest rates policy for so long?

Theoretically, the effect would be a weaker dollar (particularly vs Asia) and higher interest rates in US. I think that Euro would comprise at least 20% of the "basket of currencies" and more probably like 35%. But... my concern is that we should be able to see some of these effects IN...

Sure, I'm logged-in IRC during RTH. There's just 1 MP room called #marketprofile and it's been mostly inactive since fall 2004. I have mirc to automatically join several channels (#bondtrading, #emini, #pitstock, #t1 -this is run by Guy2 who responded a few posts ago and maintains a...

Omni, why don't you drop by the (free, open) MP (#marketprofile) room at IRC/Othernet (IRC is an open Internet protocol, like SMTP and POP, that exists for over a decade)? http://www.othernet.org/ (There are tens of other rooms with thousands of traders there) Software to use...

I know this is like the story of the boy who cried wolf... but anyway ----- China says it has no timetable for any yuan move 16 July 2005 BEIJING: The administration of president George W Bush has told key senators that it expects China to revalue the yuan in August before president...

I think he meant MER (Margin/Equity Ratio). MAR = CAGR / MaxDD

CN2000, thanks for the info. I've also been a bit puzzled with the performance of Mainland China's stocks (never looked much into it, just watching the index for the last 5yr). Am I correct to assume you wrote this yourself and you have first hand knowledge of things (i.e. live in China)...

I looked closer and apparently intraday DIA chart shows similar move as YM (which explains the YM/DIA thing). Still the EOD data (esignal) of DIA doesn't, it shows LOD 104.00 (vs 103.00 per intra DIA chart). Bad data from esignal? Notice that the plunge was preceded by a big block (1m...

A question for any folks here who have insight in the arb industry: I was quite suprised to see the 150tick spike down in YM on 23-June and AGAIN the next day. (See chart below). Other contracts were all well-behaved, the problem was only in YM. I would think that arbs (ES/YM, YM/DIA etc)...

A question for any folks here who have insight in the arb industry: I was quite suprised to see the 150tick spike down in YM on 23-June and AGAIN the next day. (See chart below). Other contracts were all well-behaved, the problem was only in YM. I would think that arbs (ES/YM, YM/DIA etc)...

This phenomenon hasn't even STARTED imo. Wait until several of those "working poor" (a blue-collar person who lost his job in the factory and now works at Walmart at 1/3 of his prior wage) start to "loudly" express their frustration. It's not just a US/Britain phenomenon, it's happening in...