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Options' OI and Vol won't help you that much. They are much less useful than futures' OI and Vol and Stock's Vol. Also remember they only reflect what have happened in the past, not what is happenning now or what will happen tomorrow.

The original question is very straightforward , which options strategy is most profitable at end of year if SPY reaches 112.5 at that time, then nothing can beat long calls.

I think you are asking which one would give you higher return percent wise hindsight. Short answer would be go for OTM calls. Try use options lab's Offline tab to calculate this , which can go back in time. The site is: http://www.TheOptionsLab.com

Your question is neither trival nor naive, too many people who trade options ( long or short ) lose every penny they put in. As a rule for long options, your rule is very sensible as long as you can stick to it no matter what.

If you are 100% sure about the SPY prediction and you can stick to your original plan, then you have nothing to worry about. Expertise on options won't always translate into gain. Don't be imitidated by so called smart people.

Hope you did NOT commit the trade. BIDU jumped almost 10% in just three days :-}

People rarely hold options contracts that long. They usually change their mind and close their positions long before target date. Buy and hold options is lot harder than buy and hold stocks.

The blue line show you the combined P & L if you buy all the four strikes together. It is mentioned on the right-hand side in the 2nd screen, called Net P & L

and here is the chart, please note that I only select four different strikes as example, you might want to change the Strike to see what return each one has.

We need assume several things first in order to answer your question. Assuming on Dec 31, 2009, SPY closes at 112.5 and also assuming you are going to buy calls tommorrow and plan to hold them at least until Dec 31, 2009. Also assuming IV won't change much (???) Then to maximize the...

Both BIDU and GOOG are in the same business and their stocks usually moves in tandem. BIDU's ER date is less than a month after GOOG's. The thing I found is that BIDU usually reacted to GOOG's ER but I almost never saw GOOG reacted to BIDU's ER. Using GOOD's options as a hedge to naked...

BIDU Options' IVs are not as rich as they are used to be. Today the IVs for Nov and Dec ATM calls are 49.5% and 47.5% based the Options Lab. Just plain naked call ? I would pass. The ER for BIDU will be around early Nov, I guess. Based on the ER expectation, I would like a calendar spread...

I always want to know about warrants. I am in US and where can I get more info regarding warrants and how can I trade them ?

If you can predict IR going to 60%, how do you know the IR won't double that, in which case, call writing will cost you a bundle.

for FX futures options, only the EUR and JPY are OK, for cash FX options, EUR and JPY are OK, rest of them are barely acceptable. Try XDE for EUR cash.

It would help if you tell us what product the puts are on instead of us guessing.

Front month IV usually experiences a sudden jump ten minutes before market close on the ER date. Monitor the IVs carefully after 3:40 PM

Got to ask yourself what is your current market view. Still bullish ? Somehow bullish ? Bearish ? Never let your current position affect your thinking. The position you choose should reflect your view. So nobody can answer your question but yourself. ** From my personal...

linear vs nonlinear

even each contract's limit is different.