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Isn't that how tops are formed -- when farmers in aggregate start to increase production or prospects for future production?

Psychology is the most overblown excuse for trading failure. The plain fact is that most aspiring traders just have no clue what they are doing, and are just placing random bets as if at a casino table. So "issues" such as failing to cut losers or let winners run are the equivalent of a...

Tape painting occurs all the time in the less liquid names -- it's the only logical explanation for some of the price action that you see. Btw, how much easier would trading be if you could hit your own bids or offers to induce panic, then push the market in the opposite direction of...

Lol I think this was what today's pre-market "news" on ttn was referring to about C -- nice how they announce it in such urgent tones, and then say "oh btw the stake was taken in January".

That seems pretty normal. Let's assume your first case is a long position; whatever factors that are getting you to sell out "early" (in retrospect) are the same factors that are luring others into selling/shorting the move. This will amplify the trend higher as they collectively discover...

I've been there myself and I have to agree, if it was just about lost money there would be no need to even consider suicide. But trading can consume you utterly if you let it, and the market has an uncanny ability to pull the rug out from under you in every sense of the word. I would...

Poker is a far closer equivalent, yet have you ever heard of any professional poker player parlay (say that ten times fast) his or her talents into the markets? The only one I've heard that trades as well is Chris Ferguson and I'm sure he hasn't given up his day job.

I play on kurnik all the time, not very good at it at all but like to keep my fingers busy with something else at times.

Just about all of retail fx is equivalent of boiler room. I mean, would you trade YHOO with a firm that quotes you say 26.25 x 26.50 during market hours and always takes the other side of your trade to boot?

Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean they're not out to get you . . .

I figure oil will keep heading higher -- then peak with 5 limit down sessions in a row.

Total bs. The less competitors in a market, the easier the trade. Index futures are a hedgers playground; you get one-way streets like today maybe twice a month. If you're looking for pure movement, each and every session, nothing beats a good eye for what's really pushing the sif's in the...

What I meant was any single trade is more like a 100/0 proposition -- either you know the situation and make the right trade, or you lose money/break even/make a little bit, depending on how "lucky" your entry was. The vast majority of struggling traders are in the latter camp, trying to break...

50/50 (greater than, less than) is an illusion in the markets -- either you are right or you are wrong for any given trade. You can try to reduce any given opportunity into a game of probabilities, but most resort to that because they have nothing better. Sure, in retrospect you can say a good...

I've never seen a company give a worse streak of cc's than this one. From 70+ in dec down to the teens, nasty!

Occam's Razor: do you really need to resort to psychology to answer that question? It's right in front of your nose. After all these years I've come to the conclusion that books on trading psychology are a bunch of crock, in fact, I can't wait until I'm retired (or broke) to write one myself.

That's kinda, well, obvious though -- is that all the question is asking? I was replying more to the guy who said something to the effect of understand probability = becoming a trader. The rest of my point is just that capital is important -- until it isn't (on a certain, individual level...

Probability is not the key -- the odds are never fixed like a deck of 52 cards. You need capital to learn, to pay your tuition from the start, that is pretty much a given. But once you make it I think it's "psychological" capital that is more important than actual. Those that play no...

I would tend to side with NYOB, it's very possible to exceed 1:1 on yearly profits vs daily bp. You have 30 dollar stocks moving 2+ pts daily, $100+ names moving 5-10. In fact, I'll make the claim that you can make more than 1:1 on 300K bp with a MAX size of 1000 shares per position -- the...

I was told it was easy, thought I aced it, and passed by 5 questions.