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  1. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    The main topic is how to prove (explain) their return. One of them might be Buffet's written statement, as in http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf What is other way to prove his/her equity curve? One might be saying "Over the last 10 years, my curve is ALWAYS between 10% and...
  2. J

    Introduction and backround. I think I have a good backround to have success

    During the last 4.5 years, initial seed of 75K is now 1700K minus loan of 50K. Therefore 65K became 1650K, which is 75*(1+x)^4.5=1650. 1+x=(1/4.5)log(1650/75) So annual compounded return rate is roughly 90%. Keep going for the rest of your life with the 90% so that you shall takes all...
  3. J

    Three California cities require the highest salaries in the US to afford a home

    In case the average income of Silicon Valley is 50% more than that of LA, then I agree that average home price of Silicon Valley is also 50% more than LA.
  4. J

    Three California cities require the highest salaries in the US to afford a home

    If the average income of SF, LA and DanDiego are same and average rent of SF is higher than LA, then SF pays more to the sleeping expense. I heard most country pay between 20% and 40% out of their income. OECD average is 22% Possibly SF people pays 40% to the rent while LA pays 30% (out of...
  5. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    1.2^50 = 9100.438 = 9100 times. 1) 1.2^4 = 2.0736 / It takes roughly 4 years to make it double. 2) 1.2^10 = 6.191736 / If one keep annual 20% for the first 10 years, then it will be 6.2 times. However, most does NOT satisfy those.
  6. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    I prefer the following types of record. 1) All my life, everytime my return always between annual 10% and 20% compounded. 2) My return rate is quite similar to Buffet's (50 years record) , as shown in http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf 3) Tell me if there is another type. Even...
  7. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    I agree it is very good attitude to keep track the trade record. Sometime lifetime record help for future logic change. Many of my friends has at least 5 years (or more than 20 years) history of ALL the trade data. I am sure it is valuable.
  8. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    It has been roughly 400 years since the stock market is(was) open in Netherlands. If there exist any SINGLE person who cosistently kept his annual 46% record (of course also by his sons and grandsons), the the family already got ALL THE ASSET in the world. Please just calculate 1.46^400. If...
  9. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    Good to hear more precisely. With a seed of 40K, if you follow the return rate (annual 100%) consistently, then your asset is supposed to grow to 40*(1+1)^50 = 4.5036e+16 after 50 years (30 to 80)
  10. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    This might be the BEST words for record. Tell us that, over the last 1 or 5 years after paying tax+commission, my record showed average annual 20%, consistently between 15% and 25%. Another way to show return is Buffet's method, as shown at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf...
  11. J

    What are normal expected returns for experienced traders? See my results

    Exactly. Many traders lies his result on purpose. For example, tell us 1) your seed cash amount 2) length of trading with SINGLE trading logic 3) annual compounded return rate. If you tell me, such as "I spent 5 years with MY OWN trading logic, with paying 10% brokerage annually. Before-cost...
  12. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    It is perfectly legal to trade 750K with 10K cash. The more one trade, the more comm+tax will be accumulated, in the long run. I am interested the annual average cost (comm+tax) of the guy.
  13. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    More precisely, equity and ETF are 0-sum with respect to index, with additional dividend. Of course, it is true if there is NO comm+tax. Actually it is minus-sum since most pay lots of comm+tax as long time as 50 years. Who can be a winner if he pay 500K for his entire life? If he steal 600K...
  14. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    Of course, since many traders pay 500K for the last 20 years, trading cannot be a 0-sum game. (daily $100 cost makes 24K per year) For example, poker is 0-sum game if there is no rake(collection).
  15. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    I should accept it was WRONG partly. Suppose the index rise for the last 10 years, then of course most EQUITY traders wins in his account. However there might be price down in the next 10 years. I mean long-run behavior of stock market is close to 0-sum, with dividend and inflation. Equity...
  16. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    Ask many friends for how many years and how much he paid for cost(already). I guess that even in this forum there are lots of long-time traders, who spent 500K or more. (daily $100 for 20 years in average)
  17. J

    Reality for an Individual Trader

    I agree that the transaction and tax might be crucial. My friend spent spent 20 years in stock market to pay roughly 500K for brokerage and tax. In average, $100 per day and 24K per year. Stock market is basically zero-sum. During the entire life, many trader spend 50 years. First, limit the...
  18. J

    sikuli / First trial

    Personally I never see the three(Ninja+MC+OQ) before. In my case, unlike the US-based trader like you, three different countries provide different trading system for me. Some broker in some country never think providing APIs, usually cheap-brokerage company. Most brokers (in many countries)...
  19. J

    sikuli / First trial

    If you have experiencs for scaling issue before, then you may have some advance for sikuli programming. Appreciated if you show me codes, even with scaling problem. I am behind you.
  20. J

    sikuli / First trial

    If I am a strictly IB-dedicated trader, then I agree with you of course. API has many great features, such as speed and others. However, I should use brokers of (at least) three countries. Some does not provide own API. I like to find a ROBUST way (to connect many brokers) with a SINGLE tool...
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