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Meanwhile, if the index goes down 20% during one year, and if some trader lost ONLY 15% nominal for that period, then he actually won roughly 5%. Lost cash but won 5% more share (portion) in total market than 1 years ago. Any objection is welcomed.

Maybe "game theory" in microeconomics area, has a full detail of various type of games. https://www.coursera.org/course/gametheory http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GameTheory.html Furthermore, for the day or swing trader with heavy volume, Law of Large Number might be applied.

Yes, for about 50 years (from 30 to 80), 9100 times is rough idea for "unlimited profit" which is same as annual compounded 20%. Note that 1.2^50 = 9100.438 =9100

Based on the Buffet report for 50 years, such as http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf SnP500 index rise annual compounded 9.9%, for the past 50 years. Among the 9.9%, roughly 1% or 2% are from dividend, isn't it?

I have to admit your point. From index100 to index 18000, most win in the long run. Therefore, I need to change my word. "Equity is zero sum with respect to index change" For example, when index rise from 15000 to 18000, everyone wins 20% / Furthermore, anyone who win less than 20% during that...

I mean strictly equity, and furthermore I never loan to buy equity, except my fault in clicking mouse. Also, Poker has no loan and Equity has dividend. / difference. Like future/option, Poker has no collateral loan. Two are similar. As we can double the stake in Holdem poker as soon as 8...

Suppose there are exactly million of trader in market and each has seed of 100K. Over long enough time (such as 50 years), how much is the total comm+tax, by the ONE million over the 50 years? My estimate is more than half of the pool (one mil times 100K) that goes to casino. If so, this is...

Perhaps trading is similar to poker. zero-sum game with finite money. But the former has commission and tax, while home poker has not. Average person make roughly 1200K over his life. (40k times 30 years) If he saves 30% with 360K, after living expense, he must pay comm+tax among principal...

To be a honest trader, he should keep all the record for commission and tax every year, up to 50 years. He can sometime change broker any time with any reason, to lose previous trading history in previous broker. If serious, tell me all the commission and tax, for your entire life. Of course...

Also, please note that, with advance of computer about 20 years ago, that kind of simulation was cheaply possible. Of course, it has been only 15 years (from late 1990's) since many traders can participate the stock exchange conveniently even from home. Before 30 years ago they should take...

All trader should have TaxRate=(tax+commission)/(ProfitBeforeTax) > 0%, during as long as 50 years (from 30 to 80). Some trader (stupid) have TR >100%. Otherwise (reasonable trader) 0%<TR<100%. Probably the former (patriot) is more portion than the latter. That is why most (more than 90%)...

There might be someone (some family) who compounded over the last hundreds of years. If anyone suggest a 10% (annual) logic or 20% logic, for his sons to compound next 400 years, it is better than current expectation amount of Buffet. Since most does not have > 50 years (from 30 to 80), he...

Most leaves his asset to his son/daughter. He can leave trading logic as a inheritance too. Unless one have some problem, there is some family (such as the Rothschilds) who consistently use same trading logic over 400 years. Of course, it includes not only stock trading logic but also BOND...

If you have 50K with annual 20% return, it means you spend time to make only 10K. In my guess you spent your own valuable time for less than minimum hourly wages. Probably your time may be less valuable than cab driver, in this case. If you see the monitor four hours every day (240*4=1000...

Please note that stock market opened in Netherlands about 400 years ago. However money lending with interest was from 2000 years ago. Also, if heard correctly, Federal Reserve in US has roughly 100 years of history. But English central bank and Rothschilds is roughly 200 years.(???) Suppose...

Suppose there are 20 days of stock market open in every month. So 240 days in every year. One percent every day implies 114.88 times by 1.02^240 = 115.8887 If he keep one percent every day with inital seed of 100K, then he should be richer now than Buffet+Gates combined. I am sure that...

Most does not reach billion in the zero-sum stock market, therefore we do not need to worry about the big money with less than annual 10% outperformance.

I agree so we may need 6 month or 1 year or 3 year of ourperformance, instead of monthly performance. For example, we need to show 30% (1.1^3 -1 =33.1% to be exact) for every 3 years, for 10% annual compounding. Moving average smoothens rough surfaces. If someone can say that "I...

However, I guess that there is someone who achieved annual compounding 10%. Recall that 1.1^50 = 117.3909 and 1.1^400 = 3.606401e+16

Regarding "Few get a consistent 20%/year." as below. I am sure that there will NO ONE at all in the world like that. Because over the last 400 years of capitalism, if there is any ONE person, then he should have all the asset in the world. That means Buffet and Gates should be broken now...