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  1. J

    By day trading, is it really impossible to get a 3% return every day without fail?

    There are roughly 52 weeks in one year, so that you hope 1.01^52 = 1 + 0.677689 with APR=68%. If you keep the APR many years, then you should be best millionaire in the world. Suppose you have seed of 10K and keep 30 years of 68%, the your asset will be 10K*1.68^30 = 5744847K = 5744M.
  2. J

    Risk free strategy that yields 5.46% per annum.

    If you are confident for the 11.4% after paying 5.94%, with seed of 400K Just calculate for 30 years. 1) After the first year, you make 400*0.114 =45.6K with paying of 400*0.0594 = 23.76K 2) At the first day of second year, you have a seed of 400+(45.6-23.76). How much is at the last day of...
  3. J

    By day trading, is it really impossible to get a 3% return every day without fail?

    Let you make 3% per day with initial seed of 10K. Roughly 20 days per month give you 10K*1.03^20= 18.06111K. And for 12 months you should have 10K*1.03^(12*20) = 12048.53K After 30 years, how much you have? After 100 years, how much you have? After 400 years (with your sons), how much you...
  4. J

    Where would I find federal rate before 1950?

    As mentioned above, I heard there was 7 years of <1% at 1930's. Possibly last 7 years of <1% is a repetition of the 7 years of 1930's. I like to confirm it.
  5. J

    Where would I find federal rate before 1950?

    Great. There is no answer yet. But it helps me a lot.
  6. J

    Where would I find federal rate before 1950?

    Sorry, I may not know the difference of the two. I heard that there was 7 years of <1%, which is similarly <1% in the recent 7 years (08~15). I like to confirm the 1930's. Hope to see the similar chart before 1950.
  7. J

    Where would I find federal rate before 1950?

    So you mean you have no idea the link from 1913 to 1950?
  8. J

    Where would I find federal rate before 1950?

    Dear- I can find the federal rate at Wiki as below. However it shows only after1950. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historical_rates Where would I find the rate from 1913 (birth of FRB) to 1950? Thanks in advance. -Jay
  9. J

    OpenAI

    Since stock market is a lot more efficient than one expect, even PhD does NOT have edge. But PhD has a little advantage, IMHO. LTCM with novel prize people does NOT have significant edge too.
  10. J

    Data structure to store Interactive Broker data

    I agree. Instead of JAVA, I would choose python or R, for finding algo and order execution with IB connection. It is since plenty of IB people use python/R, a lot more than JAVA people.
  11. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    For the 20% a month, annual compounding will be 1.2^12 = 8.9161 = 8.9 times(790%) Therefore for the 10 years it should be 8.9^10 = 3118171993 times. 1) With seed of 10K, he should have 3118171993*10K = 3118171M 2) With seed of 100K, after 10 years he has 31181719M. Does he? Probably someone...
  12. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Most traders have roughly 40 to 50 years (e.g. 30 to 80) of experience. If you are saying above record for a few years without long term, it is intentional fraud, probably. For example if his record has annual 50% compounded, then his wealth grows 1.5^50 = 637621500 times, over the 50 years...
  13. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    There is an additional question. (Quiz) Suppose one person had average wealth 400 years ago. If he (his grandsons) has about 10% of the world wealth now, what is the annual compounding rate that they keep over the 400 years? Probably there would be other assumption needed, such as that world...
  14. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    If there is ONE person from 400 years ago, at the time of opening stock market in Netherlands, then he and his sons with same trading logic shall take all the wealth in the world now. Simply calculate 1.2^400. Since there was NO ONE for 400 years, no person will make annually compounding 20%...
  15. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    As above, I agree that most investor with relatively small account tend to take more risk, than with large account. That is why small account is more likely fail to keep fair record. Probably(?) it is same reasoning as poor people spend to useless purchase than rich people. My point is that...
  16. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    IMHO, worst trader bring cash advance of 10K (annual 20%) to security market. Credit card company is smart to know there is NO PLACE in the world which grows faster than annual 20% compounded.
  17. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Regarding "My buddy probably helps this guy earn through commissions." He is not rich, to buy grocery with friend's commission. ************************************************************* Regarding "I lost over $250k of my own funds" Most traders lose (roughly more than 90%) eventually...
  18. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Regarding "Your post tells me you are a guy who is still learning to understand the market and should adopt moderate expectations and a simple trading method. That doesn't include options." ************************************************ Personally I NEVER trade any derivative like option...
  19. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    For the above, I do not believe you. For example, if it grow from 25K to 500K in five years, then annual compounded growth is r=0.82=82% by 25*(1+x)^5=500 and exp((1/5)*log(500/25)) = 1.820564. Suppose the mentor exists, why he still behave as a mentor? He should be rich now. Best way to...
  20. J

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Probably, you mean it is quite possible to grow 30% from 10K to 1000K, and 20% from 1M to 100 M. Isn't it?
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