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Thanks @bone . Let me try to say this again. So let's say the ratios give you 2:1 for BOB, and 5:2 for NOB. Then the natural weightings would be 1:1 for the BOB/NOB spread (butterfly). But these weightings in the constructed fly actually imply a 5:1 notes to ultra bonds ratio. The only thing...

China (the CCP) is in trouble because it has to figure out a way to transform it's hard earned economic gains (GPD, infra, tech, etc.) into political power. This is the only way to get what they want. To disrupt and make a failure out of the post world war two and post cold war global...

Question for traders familiar with yield spreads. Let's say I want make a fly (to trade or just to monitor). So, I want to buy notes / sell bonds AND sell bonds / buy ultra bonds This means I bought the NoB spread and sold the BoB spread. Using these ratios The cash value of all...

It's gonna be the most expensive rally in history. The rally that bankrupted America.

I talked about this in another thread. Your edge should be something like this, if it is real. Explicit - information, technology, infrastructure, industry knowledge, time advantage. Implied - experience, TA, FA, knowledge of inter-market relationships, complex math, financial modeling...

If you are a serious student of finance, you can learn this stuff in any good textbook on derivatives pricing. It's also part of the CFA institute testing curriculum (level III). A CFA title means you work (or have worked) for a regulated firm. I'm mostly self taught. I've heard traders call...

If you have a real edge it will affect your psychology. You will trade much better. One reason for that is that you know (if you adhere to the tenets of risk management) that you will succeed. It then becomes a scenario where you just need to not do dumb stuff. Knowing you have an edge is the...

Really, there are far to many for me to remember them all. But, Gary Phillips is a standout. Gary began trading in 1971, and learned how to trade from futures industry legends, Leo Melamed, Tom Dittmer, and Barry Lind. At the age of 23, he became one of the youngest members of the Chicago...

What if the US main competitor (China) keeps this new "coupon" system and just creates another 30 trillion yuan over the next few years. The crazy thing is a "limited duration" or "limited use" digital money. That is real control. Give the citizenry time limited cash to spend into a...

Hey, yea I agree. What I meant was that the trading in either market can lead the index. Not that NDX will lead NQ. Like you say, the actual index ticker (what you called "the tape" ?) is a little slow. It's something like ~100ms refresh rate from the CBOE. Fast enough to build algos...

No. They don't have the same price because there is a difference in costs associated with holding either instrument as well as the fact that the futures pays no dividend. I know because I have studied quant finance, forward pricing, market making, and microstructure. I have a degree in...

No. Both markets can lead. Futures and dark pools / listed. They are linked via the index basis, which traders call the PREM, or premium. Liquidity providers facilitate trade in both markets by trading this spread. They are exchange members, with colocation and HFT infrastructure. They...

LOL

Makes sense. They don't want you to go in full margin when the market could just come unhinged at any moment.....

If it were me buying one, I would make sure to get one that can support multiple external monitors or output to one big monitor. But, that's because I need to have multiple screens. I have 3 screens currently and would actually prefer to have like six....LOL.

Padu Trader is a guy that day and swing trades fx pairs and claims (paraphrasing) "to have found the secret to profitable trading after 30 years..." or something like that. He's light on specifics but I think it's based on TA type stuff, support / resistance and trend lines etc.

You know deep down that there's a tinge of truth in all of it. That said, I don't use any of that stuff after getting a real edge. Not a single candlestick on any of my screens. There is too much correlation trading going on to get clean TA on an index. It's being spread against a thousand...

Well, my understanding is that tight stops will increase the fail rate of the trade, but reduce the size of the loss (allowing more leverage). Wide stops will increase the success rate but increase the size of the loss as well (limiting leverage). Not always true, but a heuristic nonetheless...

I don't get what your question is. Basically they are exactly like the mini's except 1/10th the size. The exchange margins are on the CME site. The commissions are tiny and the liquidity is pretty good lately.

I checked your threads a few times. You like to work an average price, i.e. "scale in" or "average down" and it causes many to criticize you. We all know that the distance of a stop from the market influences the probability of that trade being profitable on a risk-reward basis. In other...