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Yep, I was long a couple of weeks ago, and got stopped out. Didn't you ever get stopped out in your life? So when I saw the ratio of shorts in GBP, I went long again because I think the interest rates argument for the GBP are weak. You can call it a bullshit thread if you want, but...

Thank you for the compliment, but I don't consider myself great at anything (except making pelmini - Russian dish I make with awesome lamb, and sour cream...er...where was I). The market is like the ocean, and we're all captains. The moment we think we understand it and lose respect for it...

that is the smart strategy. Sell into strength with a stop over 1.2050.

1. A believed/indicated pause in US interest rates which could come from a perceived soft patch in the US economy. 2. A massive trade number this week followed by a horrible TICS number next week. 3. A perceived strengthening of the EU economy (which is highly unlikely).

That link doesn't work - and while Thomson does confirm there was up to that many people removed from the center square, no explosions are mentioned at all. Stop drumming up panic.

Honestly, I'm more worried about the EMU and it's bickering lasting for far longer than any "soft spot" or lasting effect of the terrorist event in the UK.

You could say the same thing about the rise of EUR in December of last year. Steady (but fast) pace of the rise with no retracement at all. And then look what happened come Jan 1.

See, and I think the hugely negative sentiment drove people into going long USD (which is why all majors lost against the USD). Regardless, if you call a near 1000-pip drop in 7 days "steady", I would hate to see what you think is not steady.

I was speaking in general about expectations and actuality in the market. Fact is, it's beginning to look as if almost everyone is short GBP. And when that happens, it's time to examine what is around the corner.

Changing yield expectation does not constitute reality. If you recall, the USD was hit pretty hard a few weeks back when people expected the Fed to pause because of a preconceived economic slowdown that wasn't a slowdown at all. Sometimes, if you believe the market is running on "herd"...

Really now.

Honestly, it is my thought that the CA problem will come into focus with all currencies, inciting a rally to mid term levels before any more info pans out. I agree with your thoughts overall, and would add the geo-political concerns of a growing issue in Iran, and Greenspan's leaving to the...

Oh please.

Yes, because we all know how scientific the polls here at ET are. Gentlemen (and any ladies in the audience), stop being extremists. All you Chicken Little's running around claiming the sky is falling don't realize how foolish you sound when time proves you wrong. Remember all those people...

Anyone understand anything in this thread?

You answered your own question. "If they are not cut this week..." I do not believe that they will be cut this week.

I have a long trade open for GBP/USD. The issue is several fold. First, the moment people begin to think the tightening is over on the Fed, we're going to return to the Current Account issue (which continues to get worse and worse rather quietly). Watch the difference in yields with Ts...

Gents, You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that the very moment talk begins to erupt about the Fed pausing/stopping, the game will be up and it will be back to the CA (which incidently, will continue to grow - and probably be underfunded along the way).

Just because it broke 1.1980 does not mean Par is around the corner. As I said in your previous threads, beware of the extremist viewpoint - like the people calling 1.40 by year end.

That's a great question, honestly. But I can say that when I'm looking at a two bedroom, 1000 square foot ranch style house for about half a million, something is wrong. At least in that area of the country. Perhaps from seeing what friends of mine have bought in the last year?