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You have made an error. The normal process is using BSM, which works. For option price, the MID (BID+ASK)/2 is customary for liquid options (and most that are not so liquid). -- The greeks are computed with respect to time. Using an average option price makes no sense if you are computing...

5363 Buy's, followed by one sale?

Agree with i960 & truetype. If you have bad data, and have proof, then hiding the source makes no sense, and tends to restrict others being able to help. IMHO: It is not uncommon to have to "clean" your data, or categorize according to confidence level. I use CBOE Livevol for SPX option data...

If it improves expectancy more than closing or leaving alone. (requires better understanding of expectancy than most of us are willing/able to ascertain).

Interesting! 230K locked up for 23 days for under 1.5K ??? U have deep pockets! :-) -- may be a good balance if you have a an abundance of cash un-deployed. Curious how you determined the 14FEB 275 Call strike? -- a wild gamble, or a process you have developed with some history? --- seems...

Which expiry did you chose for the puts? 16MAR? -- if so, guessing you entered before the pullback today. -- I no-longer do naked puts, but IMO, your trade seems "relatively" safe, if it is 16MAR or sooner. The calls seem very aggressive since you only have 6 days! -- however, we do have...

It seems that SVXY will remain a viable product going forward (for the time being). The following from the prospectus, should instill confidence (not so much!): " Termination Events The Trust, or, as the case may be, a Fund, may be dissolved at any time and for any reason by the Sponsor with...

Wow! Seems I may need to dig into the prospectus! My fear is more for a liquidity issue, than a lag in value representing what it should by a few hours after market close. -- Need more "senior friendly" products to trade. ;-) (Was waiting to go long SVXY, now need to insert some reading!)

Interesting. They were expected to move about the same percentages, however, seems a huge discrepancy. SVXY down 32%, while XIV only down 14%. I am also eager for enlightenment! -- Since I transitioned from XIV to SVXY about 2 years ago, I did not notice this, until you mentioned it.

Did you get your answer? I typically kludge the initialization, with something like def Test_Num=if (barnumber()<1) then 0 else Test_Num[1]+1; plot tn=Test_Num; Which gets the job done. -- However, you may find that this "initialization" is not always required! NOTE: barnumber() increments...

Referring to: "I have an IRA (therefore a cash account, no margin) account with ETrade,..." Why "no margin"? Is that an ETrade limitation, or your choice to disallow margin?

IMHO: some suggestions 1) consider the types of errors you have made (and almost made), and develop a process for minimizing them. 2) reduce the quantity of trades and/or types of trades you make, to reduce the error rate. 3) Develop a process (automated if possible) to detect errors quickly...

Hm! Seems you may be an ideal candidate for TastyTrade with their new 2018 commission structure! <-- I don't use them myself, so using 2nd hand info.

From your post, my "guess" is you are trading only equity options! Also, it seems you are NOT trading index options, else the exchange fees may greatly bias your results (as the exchange fees typically dwarf the commissions, unless embedded). Please clarify, you are NOT trading Futures options...

TOS and TT likely will state their derivation is proprietary. Google "probability of profit formula" for available information. To "play" with it, you can use Nathan's the free web tool (http://option-risk.appspot.com/OptionRisk.jsp), to get a since of one method, which will provide some insight...

Return on risk seems to be most appropriate. It seems you assume a covered call has no risk? Your risk is your long stock position, which can go to zero, if not protected! -- This process only makes sense for Defined risk strategies, so the Long stock becomes linked to the Call Write for the...

Naked puts work until they don't! Then, and perhaps only then, will you re-evaluate their applicability to you!

You seem to propose a non existent hypothetical case. IE, your assumptions are false. Locate actual products, you think fit your idea, then the rotten tomatoes can appear.

Or, are on fire, like Amazon (works both ways). Perhaps cdcaveman's point!

It may be prudent to consider your "greed" level, and your "risk" tolerance a bit more closely, to aid in "dialing in" a strategy that best fits your personality/important factors. Both sides "greed/risk" may be equally important. For me personally, I try to balance "risk capital" (attempting...