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FWIW you might want to read the comments on pattern recognition by William Eckhardt in Jack Schwager's THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS. Good trading.

The smoothing constant is never 2; it is always a value between zero and one. Here's where 2/(n+1) comes from. A simple moving average (sma) is based on the basic statistical idea of averages. If you have seven people in a group, you can find their average weight by adding the seven...

EMAtoday = (smoothing_constant)*CLOSEtoday + (1 - smoothing_constant)*EMAyesterday This is what is called a recursive formula. The best way to start off an EMA is to average the first n-1 data. In this case, n-1 = 9. So average the first nine days the "old fashioned way", i.e., add up the...

You can put a dress on a pig but it's still a pig. Nice try at making sense out of nonsense, but no cigar. Here's an example of the nonsense that can't be redeemed: me: "Money management is necessary as well but it means nothing without good timing." Grob109: "I have a big surprise...

I don't know anything about any "Forrest Gump". Either use a stop or a reversal signal to get out. At least then he doesn't wonder if he got stopped or hit some "target". I don't know why he can't just check his equity to see if it went up or down.

The logical solution is don't have a target. That's never made any sense to me. Why limit how much you can gain? If you insist in certain constraints, you can't reasonably complain when they limit what you can do.

Hi, Lar Thanks for replying, especially in such detail. :) The reason why I asked is that Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) are generally used when the probability distribution is unknown. We can calculate the exact probability of an "ideal" roulette wheel. But if we wanted to know the pdf...

You asked "even longer-frame systems will occasionally hit a target or stop in the same day; so how does an OHLC programmer compensate for this?" I gave you an answer from a longer-frame trader POV. When I enter a trade, I enter a stoploss at the same time. If I get stopped out the same day...

I resurrected this thread for a specific reason. Then it got hijacked. :mad: Let's try again: Thanks in advance.

You need two variables: BOD position and EOD position. If EOD doesn't match BOD, then you know you got stopped out for whatever logic your system is set up for.

I gave the formula for the signed version later in the thread. Your inability to follow a coherent line of reasoning is duly noted.

:confused: Looks like an ordinary Black-Scholes calculator. What's so special about this one?

LOL! That guy has pinned my bulls***t detector more times than anybody else here, including the hucksters.

Neither can I. Of course if you go back and re-read that fairly psychotic post, he wasn't replying to only you. He included me and apparently others as well, mixing up our posts with vigor. The first reply to the OP said something like "those indicators are usually useless by themselves", but...

What part confuses you? The part that you have to get into the market to make money, or the part that you have get out of the market to avoid losing money? How can anyone expect to make money trading if he doesn't consider TIMING (when to get in, when to get out, i.e., entries and exits) of...

People have different strengths and weaknesses. Some people are natural traders, just like some people are natural athletes, some people are natural musicians, etc. If you have the talent to read a chart and see the patterns beyond the noise, with no or relatively little effort in training...

You didn't answer my question: What's the disadvantage of the Sortino ratio?

What's the disadvantage of the Sortino ratio? The topic of risk is a hot button of mine, and proof positive that economystics is no science. An economystic foolishly chooses the value-free measure of uncertainty called standard deviation to measure the value quality called risk, the other...

I'm convinced that a good half of the trading advice of the clearly idiotic variety is intentional disinformation. There's just too much of it to all be sincerely believed; it would be like 20% of the population being flat-earthers. So a lot of clowns are intentionally polluting the...

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