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I fail to appreciate the logic in this post upon the basis of a coin toss. All this highlights is that differing circumstances require different inputs, which is the art of trading ES. ie which part of the session are you in. sosueme

I imagine what we can all learn is that a coin toss is a 50/50 outcome dependent upon sample size. You have confirmed this is true when applied to a 4 trillion sample event. Now the next step is to see if we can reduce the sample size slightly. If we cannot downsize and still maintain...

hard to say really as the number of actual traders here is so small that the margin of error is too great to be sure of anything. Now the inverse of this statement is an entirely different kettle of fish. sosueme

none of the above. At best they are on a SIM, but most likely they do nothing at all and therefore they avoid facing the brutal reality of either being right or wrong. The tradgedy of this game is there are no shadows within which to hide and no one to blame but our self. What a bitch...

and you dont pay so he cannot be your janitor. were you dropped on your head as a baby. sosueme

Fancy that. I cannot imagine anyone hoisting figures like that on the ET crowd. They are too shrewd to accept anything other than audited accounts. It seems to me that scaling in/out and sideways along with money management (half in/half out) etc etc is the consensus of the crowd here...

100% is a big ask. What would you consider an achievable win ratio to be in order to enter the ES market. Over time no doubt this figure could be improved upon. And while we are at it, what win/loss ratio would you consider in order to enter the ES market. It goes without saying that...

thank you Joe sosueme

Fascinating. Would you say that "aggressive money management" has any place in a system with a high win/loss ratio and a high accuracy % or is it in place of such a system. Maybe a high win/loss ratio AND a high accuracy ratio together in one system is unobtainable. The holy grail so as...

Are you suggesting that a higher win% produces a smaller edge (win/loss ratio) sosueme

Interesting. What system results are you posting please sosueme

Can you explain how EMH applies all the time to ES trading. Also why do you say I/T do not act rationally. sosueme

You seem to be drifting off into the realms of fantasy when you mention ET and trading within the same sentence. Next thing, you will be telling us you are a real trader and that would be over the bordaline. We may not be able to get you back this time. sosueme

He cant FO since he is the OP and quite frankly I am surprised this fact slipped past a brilliant mind such as yours. This being the case, I gather you have just made your farewell speech sosueme

The long bias is entirely due to the issuance of credit and the devaluation of money (they go hand in hand) This in turn brings us all back to your rather broad "buy and hold" theory. sosueme

There you go. This the secret to trading ES successfully. Live by this code and the fog will clear sosueme

Interesting chart. I am not very clever with numbers, so tell me what you think of these. Comparing low to low in an uptrend ... S&P 1984 ... around 150 2009 ... around 680 CII 1981 ... 100 2009 ... 632 CII (cost inflation Index) is the gov. figure and is...

What have you allowed for dollar depreciation, inflation and use of money. sosueme

Sadly, that is the reality of their situation. How it was permitted to happen is another story. sosueme

Reality does not need to be perceived as brutal, it just is what it is. Sosueme