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  1. TrustyJules

    Timing - the actual hour - of FDA approval/disapproval decisions on new drugs

    The stock is called Pharming Group (NL0010391025) - the med they are awaiting a result on is Ruconest for use in non-hereditary angio oedema (already approved for hereditary). Its practically a one product stock - in the Netherlands this stock has high visibility and an - errm - mixed track...
  2. TrustyJules

    Timing - the actual hour - of FDA approval/disapproval decisions on new drugs

    Well here its really time sensitive - the date is firm and verifiable but if it is announced before market closure in Europe I think there is a free lunch available on the option market at the moment. I looked around but i cant find a time stamp on FDA news releases sadly.
  3. TrustyJules

    Timing - the actual hour - of FDA approval/disapproval decisions on new drugs

    Does anyone know whether the FDA releases the decision on a new drug approval (or not) at a specific time like 9 AM EST or whether there is no way to know the exact time? The question is of interest because I noted that the FDA is due to issue a decision on 9/21 for a European quoted company...
  4. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    @Raf Only Sig is being obtuse here in insisting I am saying stuff I am not. In fact most of what Sig says I agree with except that he's making points on stuff I never claimed in the first place. As he is now in full troll-bully mode trying to provoke a flame war, there is no point in talking to...
  5. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    @Sig - You persist (for the third time) in putting words in my mouth: The fact you feel the need to utilise expletives like 'moron' and 'fuck' tells me enough. Thank you for your replies, I think we can agree that this discussion is pointless to continue. I wish you well in your trading,
  6. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    Sig, there is no need to be patronising - you are not reading me correctly I am afraid. I never made the contrary point to your first one at all. I brought up two points including the spread, I take note of the offer to nail the intrinsic value. Let me just say that is not what happens in my...
  7. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    ok this is getting weird - all I said there was that it was not clear from the original post that the strategy the OP put forward was to use low VIX as an indicator to buy long term (non VIX) options. This is not a 'way to look at options'. @Martinghoul: As regards the value of European vs...
  8. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    The VIX tends to be quite volatile and hence if you are long the VIX you would be delighted to see a large spike such as the one on March 2nd of this year. However two things work against you in those cases. First as the previous poster remarked the actual move of the option price can be...
  9. TrustyJules

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    The confusion arose from the OP's post which speaks of the VIX in the headline and of buying long term options without explaining he wasnt referring to buying long term VIX options. The fact VIX options are European certainly has a lot to do with many things but indeed nothing with a question...
  10. TrustyJules

    Timing a non-directional earnings play

    This statement is inherently contradictory. IV is derived from option prices and vice versa, they are communicating vats; all other variables being equal. With a stable shareprice the main reason you see no change in option prices is because of theta, most strategies using earnings are...
  11. TrustyJules

    Timing a non-directional earnings play

    No arguing with that - I wont say I never did it because I have and more often than not came out ahead. What I couldnt see was a way to win consistently. As regards using the volatility increase, this is quite simple. You buy between 3-14 days ahead a 40/50 delta call. Generally right before...
  12. TrustyJules

    Timing a non-directional earnings play

    As a general strategy, whether you buy or sell the straddle of a stock the day before earnings to buy/sell it the day after is just gambling. You are praying for a move larger than the straddle value or conversely a smaller move if you are short. Unless you have a crystal ball there is no real...
  13. TrustyJules

    Review my Wilmott post

    Its too much work to review the whole text. Try and avoid the overuse of the word 'I' for starters and give less spiritual insights into your quant/trading experience. If you are Romanian and therefore somewhat Latin, think more in the Cartesian style: axiom, analysis followed by synthesis. As...
  14. TrustyJules

    Review my Wilmott post

    Did you spend time with those gypsies you mention before you wrote this?
  15. TrustyJules

    Any studies on who normally wins - option writer versus purchaser?

    The problem with this question is the definition of the last in line insurer. Farmers and airlines share the fact that they hedge the price of their produce/kerosine or currency exposure. A really interesting case study is KLM (nor merged with Air France) who at one time was making consistently...
  16. TrustyJules

    Selling Puts: How to Calculate Return When Selecting Strike Price/Date? And With Margin?

    Kim, the problem is that people forget the leverage in options. If you cant afford to lose 10% on a position of 500 shares you should not be short 5 puts either. Yet because optically the amount looks tiny in comparison to 500 shares of stock - certainly for the Alphabet/Amazon/Booking.com type...
  17. TrustyJules

    Selling Puts: How to Calculate Return When Selecting Strike Price/Date? And With Margin?

    @lindq What you are saying is applicable to quasi any strategy. If the shit hits the fan for your particular strategy things do not end well. In any case shorting puts is done for quite different reasons than wanting to own the underlying.
  18. TrustyJules

    What is this strategy called?

    You make my point. The margin is just what you would have on a spread, you should calculate on the basis of just the spread - it would be the same.
  19. TrustyJules

    What is this strategy called?

    Oh and its definitely NOT an exchange recognised strategy so the lower margin (if any) is purely a result of your broker being good for you.
  20. TrustyJules

    What is this strategy called?

    Well I am not with IB but they reference a page where their users can figure it out. I cant tell how you arrived at the 3.5% but I am guessing you are not taking the correct values into account. You should check what the margin requirement is for simply being 100 options short in a spread 40/40...
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