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  1. J

    Picking a OTM option call for 2011?

    Of course, it's so hard to know and if you only pick 1 stock, you might get stuck with one that does worst. A while back when stocks had been beaten down, I bought some Mar/Apr calls on ADM, AA, IGT and KLAC to diversify. I made all my money back and more just on ADM and KLAC and later sold...
  2. J

    Worst case crash scenario

    I think you mean "of what I sold it for" at the end of that sentence. Remember you are SELLING a put and then BUYING it back. If you sell an 80 put and the stock or index goes to 0, you could be forced to pay about $8000 to buy it back. In that case, it would be around 27 times what you sold...
  3. J

    Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008

    Good list there. Generally, I think people should refrain from making predictions, especially those that just take the current trend and see it continuing, etc. such as with the OIL prices. I saw once an interesting stat from the NFL - over 2 years (I think it was when the Rams and Ravens...
  4. J

    Real Estate... is this a buy?

    Doing some basic reasearch, is this the condo in question? http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7920-Merrill-Rd-UNIT-1607-Jacksonville-FL-32277/71042518_zpid/...
  5. J

    Real Estate... is this a buy?

    I own some properties in the midwest that I rent out. I paid around $90-$105K for them and they rent out for about $750-$850 a month. However, they are houses so there is no HOA fee so that is a plus. Also, they are in a locally popular school district so that is a big plus as well. I...
  6. J

    Best method for graphing multileg positions?

    Have you tried the Position Simulator at www.888options.com ? It's pretty nice, but the main limitation is that it only allows up to 4 legs. You can change the date to any date and change the volatility assumption on that date. Just go to that website and go to Advanced -> Position...
  7. J

    Question about puts

    mynd66, I think you are probably correct in your observation about the put you bought on the 16th. I looked at a chart of the VIX. Today it went to the low 40s and closed at 44.93. On the 16th before the Fed decision came out, it appears it was around 55-56 range. This means the overall...
  8. J

    IB/DDE/EXCEl Question

    Spin, I just had another thought. You are apparently trying to toggle based on if (A-B)>.20 or not, but sometimes A is 0, right? Why not compare Ask+Bid then and see if it's in a normal range (i.e. if Ask = 10.00 and Bid = 10.40 then Tot should be 20.40). Something like: If...
  9. J

    IB/DDE/EXCEl Question

    Spin, I am a bit confused about one thing in your question. If the Bid/Ask hits > .20 and then stays > .20, you only want it to beep the first time, or beep every time it legitimately stays over .20? If you only want to hear the beep the first time, I was thinking about something like...
  10. J

    The #1 Reason Why America will never recover

    Absolutely not. Where did I say that was everyone? Seems like there might be some hate in you there???? I currently live in a city that has a lot of church go-ers. I basically never go myself. The city also has low crime, nice neighborhoods, etc. If people want to go to church, why hate...
  11. J

    The #1 Reason Why America will never recover

    I'd rather not get into a big religion debate, but if I were to move into a new city or section of a city, I'd far rather it be full of decent people who simply want to enjoy life, raise families, and go to church every week then to be full of people who hate and/or people who live on welfare...
  12. J

    Question on Option Buying

    1. If the stock moves to $30, or even $35 right at expiration, the 40 strike will end up 100% worthless. A 12.5, 10.0, 7.5, or 15.0 strike will have plenty of value and likely very good returns. In fact, if the stock is at 39.50 with a few minutes to go, the 40 strike will be worthless. Only...
  13. J

    Question on Option Buying

    First of all, hopefully I don't have to tell you that a stock going from 10 to 40 in 2 months is quite a long shot. Just buying the stock would make you 4 fold you money if it got there. When you say "If it comes to 9 I i will exit...", I assume you mean if it falls to 9 you will get out? In...
  14. J

    AAPL downgraded at Goldman Sachs

    I have no opinion on AAPL right now, but aren't these the clowns that warned of $200 oil when it hit $140? And I remember just about 3-4 months ago some people talking about $8 and I think one guy even said in a few years $20/gal gas!! What these brokers say needs to be taken with about...
  15. J

    Estimating the size of the move based on implied vol of the near month at-the money s

    mktmkr, Another useful item in this kind of scenario is a Probability calculator. OptionviewReseach.com has one for free. Just go to their home page and click on Probability Calculator. You then might want to save it as a favorite. You enter the relavent data and it comes up with the...
  16. J

    short strangle hedged with futures

    Carl, I admit I don't know alot about the details of futures trading (I only trade options), but it seems like you run the standard risks that happen when you aren't hedged to begin with. That is that as a position moves against you, you need to decide when to hedge, and how much of a hedge you...
  17. J

    My trade for the next 5 years

    For commodities, etc. I like UYM. I think it will do very good in any all out recovery, especially with all the talk about infrustucture programs, etc and I like some of the range of companies it has in the top 10 holdings.
  18. J

    Hedged strategy using UYG/SKF Financials. What do you think?

    Update Market close Dec 8th (Note, Prev close was listed as incorrect date): SKF close = 102.50 UYG close = 6.86 SKF 200 strike put Dec (Short) = 98.40/99.10 SKF 150 strike put Dec (Long) = 49.80/50.80 Worst case to rebuy = $4930 Price if split bid/ask = $4845 UYG 4 strike call Dec...
  19. J

    A few newbie option questions....

    Spin, I'm not quite sure what you are referring to in my comments, as I didn't say anything about shorting options. I was writing about long puts versus long calls. No matter what, the most a 5 strike put can ever go to is $500. On the other hand, a 5 strike call theoretically has...
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