Search results

Just a generic term meaning although things get outta wack, like a spike up, the move is usually temporary and will go back to the "average" previous prices. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp

A simple mean reversion model would have made you a lotta money these past couple years. There have been many o many false breakouts of the longer end, and all in all it's doing what has happened in the past, stayed relatively the same. However, most would argue that the curve can't continue...

that's what I thought, I guess I was hoping to get around that by shorting the back-months, but I guess they don't exist... thanks for that

Cool thanks, do you think I'd be paying too much of a premium for them if I had to always roll to a new contract, I also looked at CBOE options and the late-2006 has waaay too much risk-premium priced in.

Ya, sorry, I"d be short bonds

one more try

Why is it that the Eurodollar futures contracts extend waaaay out into the future, I think I can buy 2015 eurodollar contracts. But I can only buy 2006 10-years? Both contracts are based on future expectation of interest rates. Here's my problem, I'm forecasting long-rates will be over 10% by...

I think I've been right 10 times in a row now, and although it's close this time, i'm parlaying all of it into a raise. Look at the futures and it's a 90% odds according to what traders expect.

I thought this was how you calculate chance of fed raising, Let's assuming 96.28 (3.72-3.5)/(0.25) = 88%... Please correct me if i'm wrong...

Afternoon churn was broadly faded, Naz couldn't go through resistence at breakeven. The market sold at every chance it got, looks like a top may be near.

Could somebody kindly provide resources on how to write up a simple credit report on corporate bonds? I"m looking at the Hoover's/S&P type reports and would like to know what types of factors and assumptions they take into considerationg before grading them. Any articles on the process that...

Most hedge funds will cover the day after the announcement, causing a slight dead cat bounce. It's a good idea in my opinion, you've already made a killing, now you wanna avoid he taxes too? If only lightning struck twice

You'll see program trading orders ALL the time, half of all trading volume is done by the programs. So what you saw very well could have been programs, but that's like asking if you saw a tree while standing in the middle of a forest. Most programs aren't super strong, only lasting a few...

Don't worry about missing the rallies, it works the other way too, afternoon selloffs are tradable in the other direction.

Go to www.dtc.org... That's where the majority of issues are settled and cleared on a T+3 basis. The back office business is interesting but suprisingly complex. Custody of securities is important and yet suprisingly prone to error, still too many humans involved in the process in my opinion.

The rule of thumb is the smart money leads the bonds around, and that in turn moves every other market around. INtraday though they may very well go out of sink. It's more a longer term indicator and even then it's not as straight forward since you need to analyse the yield curve not just the...

30 year T-bonds as a rate is pretty aggressive valuation no? I'd first go with a mixed wacc, or something closer to the historical industry return rate. Also, you may want to put in a growth rate suitable for the org in question. Refreshing to see some good ol DCF on the boards, reminds me of...

price target and a catalyst please?

Except for the cold calling part sounds like a very interesting career path. Thanks for sharing Samson

I guess that's a major factor in joining a firm, whether the I-banking division gives you pieces of IPOs, something a smaller firm wouldn't have much of. How do you land an insti? I'm assuming you're not cold calling during dinner time... I remember telemarketing for one of "you guys" when I...