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exactly. and that';s the perfect description of wallstreetgolfertroll(tm). - a "perturbation"

Virgin, I'm with you This thread will have a positive result Our bestseller inspired by an internet troll :)

it worked. trolls are like electronic crack. you know you shouldn't inhale and respond to them, but you just can't help it. :)

golf clap a big part of chaos theory is how (relatively) small perturbations in a system can have HYOOGE (and somewhat unpredictable) effect. the classic "butterfly flapping its wings in bolivia causing a hurricane in guatemala"... thang again, market behavior is HUMAN behavior. the...

excellent point market behavior is human behavior human behavior is HARD to predict. ask any psychologist it doesn't follow that no positive expectancy bets can be made on behavior in certain cirucmstances

OEX day is whack - in general don't draw any conclusions from observations made on OEX day - except that it was OEX day many traders are better off not trading OEX day at all. i find that there are only a few of my setups that work on OEX day. so, i usually don't trade it

i trade (mostly) index futures, specifically the dow. the dow is a proxy for supply and demand among institutions, it is less frenetic than the ES (and has a better spread) and it is price weighted, not cap weighted (i hate cap weighted indexes...) but i digress when I am trading the dow...

some points... it is correct that ASSUMING (Like many academics have done) a normal distribution curve is problematic (and i say this even as an advocate of market profile). it's also a flaw in the black-scholes formula...

i don't use any indicators, in the sense of RSI MACD Moving Averages etc iow, i don't use any indicators that give signals based on analysis of X past price/time events . part of the reason is that i know that most traders are losers, and most traders are using these types of things. no...

so what? there are lots of hard working businessmen who fail in EVERY type of business again, there is no statistically possible way that given thousands of trades a year, a trader could be successful year after year. ESPECIALLY considering commissions/slippage. do the math don't...

no, they are not ENOUGH when the PREMISE is wrong here's a little hint. garbage in, garbage out. if you are not testing the right variables, you will usually get the wrong result the issue is not the relative success of TRADERS. the issue is relative positive expectancy of their...

renegen, academics in the field of the social sciences proclaimed for decades (and many still do) that all the differences in behavior between men and women was the result of social construction. now almost ANY parent and schoolteacher knows this is absurd. but academics WANT to...

there is a reason why second year college students are called "sophomore". the origins are from the Greek Soph - wise More - idiot (as in moron). they are called sophomores because they are "wise" ie a bit schooled in academic theory but also MORONS because they think they know far...

an edge means you have the ability to recognize market conditions that allow a trade entry at that level to have positive expectancy. it's that simple there are all kinds of edges . and edge is also a wholistic concept. a hyooge part of my edge has NOTHING to do with trade analysis...

explain to me how a system that is based on the aggregate actions of millions of participants, none of whom are perfectly rational, all of whom have emotions, opinions (price IS opinion), goals, etc. could result in a system wherein no edge could ever be found edges are always present in the...

ask any broker who some of the WORST traders are and they will tell you it's PhD's (in various fields), medical doctors, and lawyers why? because they think they are smarter than everybody else, smarter than the market itself, and cannot admit when they are wrong, because their "theories"...

you are correct. again, if it wasn't clear from my post - i was saying poker (and futures trading) are zero sum - ASSUMING you don't cost in the commissions. it is true that online and casino poker is not zero sum due to the rake. a true zero sum game would be your home game, although...

to some extent, yes. trading is not a zero sum game, like poker (except in options, forex and futures). so, it is not true, as in poker, that every dollar in your P&L comes from somebody else's loss. but with shorter timeframes, to include daytrading, it approaches the appearance of a...

risk management. you play poker, so you should have a cursory understanding at a minimum of game theory, risk of ruin, etc. you know to push the edge you have, and if you manage risk and wait for opportunity, you do fine there is a saying - first you learn how to lose money, then you...

i'd like to comment on the 40 pt stop thing. i usually find that when (stock traders especially) people talk about "risk/reward" ratios, they fail to take into account that ALL that matters (in the long run) is positive expectancy, NOT the oft-repeated (and again, mostly from stock people)...